| Soil salinization is an important factor restricting the sustainable development of agriculture in Hetao Irrigation District. Improving irrigation and drainage management plays a key role in soil salinization prevention and control in Hetao Irrigation District. Taking typical irrigation and drainage units in Hetao Irrigation District as an example, this study simulated and predicted the dynamic changes of soil salinization in cultivated land and wasteland in the next 10 years under different irrigation and drainage management scenarios based on the validated SahysMod model. The results showed that under the current conditions, soil salinity of cultivated land showed a trend of slow increase in the early stage of the forecast, that is, 2021-2025, and an obvious trend of increase in the later stage, that is, 2026-2030. Soil salinity in wasteland increased year by year in the early stage of prediction and changed gently in the late stage. Compared with wasteland, the decrease of total water diversion had a greater effect on soil salinity change in cultivated land. With the decrease of irrigation quota, soil salinity of cultivated land will increase significantly, but with the increase of irrigation quota, the decrease rate of soil salinity accumulation is not obvious. Increasing irrigation quota still plays an important role in soil salt leaching and maintaining the effect of drainage and salt drainage in the study area. From the perspective of salt accumulation effect of cultivation and wasteland, the salt control effect is most significant if the current drainage ditch depth is increased from 1.5m to 1.8m. |