| Abstract: The agricultural drought disaster risk evaluation index system was constructed using the Analytic Hierarchy Process and Weighted Comprehensive Evaluation Method, based on the soil-vegetation-atmosphere continuum (SPAC) system.This system considers three aspects:the hazardousness of disaster-causing factors, the vulnerability of disaster-conceiving environments, and the exposure of carriers.The objective of this study is to analyze and assess the risk of agricultural drought in the Aksu region by integrating multi-source data.The study aims to classify the Aksu region into five levels of drought risk.The results indicate:(1) The Aksu region faces a high risk of agricultural drought disaster,with 78.1% of the total area falling under the category of medium risk or above.The region is characterized by a high risk in the south and a low risk in the north.(2)The areas with the highest risk are primarily located in the southern regions of Awati, Shaya,and Wensu counties.The areas with medium-high risk are mainly located in the western part of Xinhe County,the eastern part of Baicheng County,the central part of Kuqa City, the southern part of Koping County, and the southern part of Aksu City.The areas with medium risk are primarily located in the southwestern part of Kuqa City and the northern part of Awati County.(3)The risk of agricultural drought disaster in the Aksu oasis region is not high.The medium-low risk area and medium risk area account for 68.6% of the total oasis area.Additionally,the risk of drought disaster in the oasis region is lower than that in other regions of Aksu.However,the risk of drought disaster in the Wensu County oasis region is high.The study results are indeed significant in addressing the gap in drought disaster risk assessment and zoning in the Aksu region.By identifying the main factors causing disasters and providing data support for agricultural drought monitoring and early warning,the study can help mitigate the impacts of drought on agriculture in the region.Additionally, the results can contribute to promoting the sustainable development of oasis agriculture in the Aksu region by enabling better planning and management strategies to address the specific risk levels in different areas. |