| 肖志强,林纾,尚学军,樊明,吴文辉,赵育俊,王小明.陇南山区春末夏初旱涝指数的确定与预测研究[J].干旱地区农业研究,2006,(3):26~30 |
| 陇南山区春末夏初旱涝指数的确定与预测研究 |
| Determination and prediction of flood and drought index for late spring and early summer in Longnan mountain area |
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| DOI：10.7606/j.issn.1000-7601.2006.03.05 |
| 中文关键词: 陇南 春末夏初 旱涝特征 预测模型 |
| 英文关键词:Longnan late spring and early summer floods and drought character prediction model |
| 基金项目: |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 春末夏初正值陇南山区玉米播种、出苗关键期,该时段旱涝直接影响着玉米产量的高低。通过分析1963~2003年气象及玉米产量资料,制定衡量陇南春末夏初旱涝特征的旱涝指数;用EOF方法分析陇南春末夏初旱涝状况,时空分布特征和对农业生产的影响规律,分片建立春末夏初旱涝均生函数预测模型。由于该旱涝指数考虑到前期旱段、降水量和同期降水量、蒸发量等因子,与玉米产量相关密切。对春末夏初旱涝指数的分析和预报,也就是对玉米产量的分析和预报,它较传统统计方法更全面,更客观。通过2004年业务应用,预报准确率及服务效益有较大提高。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Late spring and early summer is the key period for autumn maize sowing,emerging,jointing and heading in longnan.Floods and droughts of this period directly affect maize yield.Through analyzing the weather and maize yield data from 1963 to 2003 according to the climatic rule and the condition of agriculture production,the index figure for judging the quantitative character of floods and droughts determined.The spatial distribution character of the flood and drought and its effect on agriculture production were analyzed using EOF method.Prediction models of the mean generating function method were established for different regions.Because the flood and drought indexes account for the drought and precipitation of the earlier stage as well as the precipitation and evaporation during the maize growth period,the index figure is related close with maize yield.For analysis and prediction of maize yield,the analysis and prediction of the flood and drought indexes were more complete and objective than the traditional method.The forecast accuracy and service efficiency were largely enhanced by using the application of this method in 2004. |
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