| 杨晓华,白虎志,周志鹏.甘肃省伏旱指数特征及多层递阶方法预测[J].干旱地区农业研究,2006,(4):180~186 |
| 甘肃省伏旱指数特征及多层递阶方法预测 |
| The character of index of arid dog days and multilayer hierarchical method for predetermination in Gansu Province |
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| DOI：10.7606/j.issn.1000-7601.2006.04.39 |
| 中文关键词: 伏旱指数 EOF分析 多层递阶预测 甘肃省 |
| 英文关键词:index of arid dog days(or draught index) EOF analysis multiplayer hierarchical Gansu province |
| 基金项目: |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 根据甘肃省58个台站1961~2000年伏期降水和气温资料计算其德马东干燥指数,并对其进行EOF分析。结果表明:甘肃省伏旱指数的空间分布特征与降水量分布特征非常相似,伏旱有3种主要空间分布形式和7个气候区域,各区伏旱发生频率是不同的,天水区伏旱发生频率最高,甘肃中部西片最低。用多层递阶方法对各区代表站点的伏旱指数进行预测,可取得较好效果,检验准确率在70%以上。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| We calculated the Demadong arid index according to the data which got from 58 meteorological agencies and stations in Gansu Province,P.R.C.from 1961 to 2000 and also carried out EOF analysis.The results indicated as follow: The spatial distribution of arid dog days index and distribution of amount precipitation were very similar.The arid dog days had three kinds of main spatial distribution forms and 7 climatic zones.The breakout frequency of arid dog days was difference among the zones.The highest was in Tianshui area and the lowest was located at the west part of centre in Gansu Province.We got conclusions from aforesaid and determined the representative regional station,investigated forecast factors which had higher related coefficient absolute value and progressed forecast experiment by means of multiplayer hierarchical and gained some forecast results which were much better than usual methods. |
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