| 琚彤军,石辉,胡庆.延安市近50年来降水特征及趋势变化的小波分析研究[J].干旱地区农业研究,2008,(4):230~235 |
| 延安市近50年来降水特征及趋势变化的小波分析研究 |
| Wavelet analysis of precipitation variation and trend in nearly 50 years in Yan’an |
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| DOI：10.7606/j.issn.1000-7601.2008.04.43 |
| 中文关键词: 降水 小波分析 最近邻抽样回归模型 延安市 |
| 英文关键词:wavelet analysis nearest neighbor bootstrapping regressive model Yan’an |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金重点项目资助(30230290)； 中国科学院水土保持研究所领域前沿项目(SW05109)； 中科院西部计划项目(KZCX2-XB2-5) |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 利用Morlet小波对延安1952~2003年52年间的降水量进行了多时间尺度分析,结果表明,延安降水在36 a和2532 a的时间尺度上变化较强,存在近22 a和3 a的降水周期,其中22 a的周期变化最为强烈。根据降水周期,延安年降水在2003年后的58 a内相对偏多,2007~2009年左右达到最大值,然后降水量开始减少,从2013年左右开始进入一个约10 a的少雨阶段。基于1952~1990年降水量资料,建立小波变换的最近邻抽样回归模型,用1990~2003年13 a的年降水量变化作为校验,13年中有11年的预测结果相对误差小于30%,说明小波分析和最近邻抽样回归模型结合可以较好地预测降水量的年际变化。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| The annual precipitation series from 1952～2003 in Yan’an was analyzed through mult-i timescale by using Morlet wavelet．The results showed that the changes of 3～6 and 25～32years scale were stronger and there were nearly22and3years period with22-year periodic changes most strongly． According to precipitation cycle the Yan’an annual precipitation in the next 5～8 years will be relatively high to reach the maximum in 2007～2009 and then to begin to reduce．The precipitation from 2013 will enter a stage of drier period for about10years．The annual precipitation predicted model was established on the basis of wavelet and nearest neighbor bootstrapping regressive method by the annual precipitation data from1952 to1990 then the model was used to predict 13-year annual precipitation changes from 1991 to 2003．There was11years prediction results with relative error less than 30％ this showed that the comprehension wavelet analysis and nearest neighbor bootstrapping regressive method can be used to predict the precipitation changes． |
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