张文宗,赵春雷,康西言,王鑫,刘晶淼,张超.河北省冬小麦旱灾风险评估和区划方法研究[J].干旱地区农业研究,2009,27(2):10~16
河北省冬小麦旱灾风险评估和区划方法研究
Study on methodology for risk assessment and division of winter wheat drought hazard in Hebei Province
  
DOI：10.7606/j.issn.1000-7601.2009.02.03
中文关键词:  河北省  冬小麦  干旱  风险区划
英文关键词:Hebei Province  winter wheat  drought  risk division
基金项目:国家财政部气象行业专项(GYHY200706030)； 中国气象局气象新技术推广项目(CMATG2008M32)
作者单位
张文宗 Hebei Laboratory for Meteorology and Eco-Environment，Shijiazhuang 050021，China；Meteorological Science Institute of Hebei Province，Shijiazhuang 050021，China 
赵春雷 Hebei Laboratory for Meteorology and Eco-Environment，Shijiazhuang 050021，China；Meteorological Science Institute of Hebei Province，Shijiazhuang 050021，China 
康西言 Hebei Laboratory for Meteorology and Eco-Environment，Shijiazhuang 050021，China；Meteorological Science Institute of Hebei Province，Shijiazhuang 050021，China 
王鑫 Hebei Laboratory for Meteorology and Eco-Environment，Shijiazhuang 050021，China；Meteorological Science Institute of Hebei Province，Shijiazhuang 050021，China 
刘晶淼 Hebei Laboratory for Meteorology and Eco-Environment，Shijiazhuang 050021，China；Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences，Beijing 100081，China 
张超 College of Resource ＆ Environment Hebei Normal University，Shijiazhuang 050016,China 
摘要点击次数: 249
全文下载次数: 123
中文摘要:
      分别以冬小麦年雨量平均值±0.5倍样本标准差和平均值±1.5倍样本标准差界定不同等级的干旱年份,以气象产量减产大于等于3%界定冬小麦受灾年份,分析了河北省各市冬小麦旱年的平均减产率及其空间分布,研究了冬小麦不同旱灾强度的频率分布规律。提出了冬小麦干旱灾害风险指数的概念和计算方法,分析了河北省冬小麦干旱灾害风险指数的区域分布规律,并以旱年平均减产率、干旱灾害风险指数和冬小麦年雨量等因子为指标,利用地理信息技术将全省冬小麦种植区区划为干旱灾害高、中、低3种风险区,并探讨了各类风险区不同旱灾年景的平均减产率和防灾减灾措施。
英文摘要:
      Different levels of dry years was defined respectively by the ±0．5 times and ±1．5 times standard deviational sample variance of the mean values of annual precipitation and then winter wheat dry disaster year was confirmed by whether the meteorological equivalent yield reduction rate was greater than 3％．In addition analysis was made of the average winter wheat yield reduction rate in dry years and its spatial distribution in various areas of Hebei Province and study was also made on the frequency distribution law of the winter wheat drought hazard with different intensities．From point of view on risk analysis of disasters it presented a methodology for risk assessment and division of winter wheat drought hazard in Hebei Province including the concept calculation method and regional distribution of the disaster risk index．The average decreasing rate drought hazard risk indexes and annual precipitation were selected as factors dominating insurance of drought hazard based on which the winter wheat growing zone might be divided into three grades such as light moderate and severe under the support of GIS．The average decreasing rate the disaster prevention and mitigation measures of dry year with different intensities and loses were also dicussed in different kind of risk areas．
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