| 白美兰,郝润全,高建峰,刘宏伟.内蒙古地区极端气候事件分布特征及对农业影响评估[J].干旱地区农业研究,2009,27(2):21~27 |
| 内蒙古地区极端气候事件分布特征及对农业影响评估 |
| Distribution character of extreme climatic events and evaluation of its influence on agriculture in Inner Mongolia |
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| DOI：10.7606/j.issn.1000-7601.2009.02.05 |
| 中文关键词: 极端气候事件 分布特征 影响评估 |
| 英文关键词:extreme climatic event distribution character influence evaluation |
| 基金项目:内蒙古气象局科技创新项目“内蒙古地区极端气候事件分布规律及预评估方法研究”(NMQX200505) |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 以1984~2006年的气象观测资料和收集到的同时段极端气候事件农作物受灾面积资料为基本资料,基于线性趋势分析、回归分析、贝叶斯分类判别预测等方法以及灾害学理论,分析与气温和降水有关的极端气候事件的演变规律。可以看出,随着全球气候变暖,内蒙古地区极端气温和降水事件出现频率和灾害损失程度均呈上升趋势;在此基础上,建立了内蒙古地区农业生产干旱灾害损失评估模型,定量分析评估了干旱对农作物造成的影响及损失的大小。模型经过实际检验,与实况基本相符。同时预估了干旱灾害发生时,作物种植的最优方案及经济效益的高低。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Using data (1984～2006) of meteorological observation and area of affected crops for extreme climatic events, forecasting method like linear-trend analysis, regression analysis, Bayes classification and discrimination, and catastrophology theory, this paper analyses the developing rule of extreme climatic events related with temperature and precipitation.It shows that the extreme temperature and rainfall events and the loss they cause represent rising tendency in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region.We make model for evaluating the drought impacts which is the worst-hit for crops and the disaster-caused loss.And the result from the model is the same as the fact in substance.It also predicts the optimal project and the economic benefits of planting. |
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