应用DSSAT 模型预测宁夏春小麦产量演变趋势

杨勤; 许吟隆; 林而达; 熊伟; 陈晓光

杨勤,许吟隆,林而达,熊伟,陈晓光.应用DSSAT 模型预测宁夏春小麦产量演变趋势[J].干旱地区农业研究,2009,27(2):41~48

应用DSSAT 模型预测宁夏春小麦产量演变趋势

Application of DSSAT crop model on prediction of potential yield of spring wheat in Ningxia

DOI：10.7606/j.issn.1000-7601.2009.02.08

中文关键词: SSAT作物模型 Baseline气候情景 A2、B2气候情景品种参数潜在产量

英文关键词:DSSAT crop model baseline climate scenario A2and B2climate scenario cultivar coefficient potential yield

基金项目:国家科技攻关计划子专题“气候变化对宁夏农业影响的综合分析”(2001-BA611B-04-06-02)

作者	单位
杨勤	Weather Station of Ningxia, Yinchuan,Ningxia 750002,China
许吟隆	Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081,China
林而达	Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081,China
熊伟	Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081,China
陈晓光	Meteorological Bureau of Qinghai,Xining,Qinghai 810001,China

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中文摘要:

对DSSAT作物模型中的CERES-Wheat小麦模型,在排除虫害和病害影响条件下,以宁夏永宁站永良4号春小麦为样本进行品种参数调试及模拟验证,确定品种参数。宁夏平罗站同一品种15年生育期特征及潜在产量模拟验证结果表明,产量值、开花天数预测结果较好,生理成熟天数模拟误差较大。宁夏黄河灌区25 km×25 km共计39个格点1961~1990年Baseline气候情景(无考虑温室气体效应)及构建的2011~2100年A2(CO₂约1%的中高排放)、B2(CO2约0.5%的中低排放)气候情景潜在产量模拟对比结果表明,Baseline气候情景下39个格点的平均潜在产量6 428 kg/hm²,A2情景下的2011~2040、2041~2070、2071~2100平均产量分别为6 235、5 869、5 211 kg/hm²,与Baseline年相比均为减产趋势,分别减产为3%、8%、19%。B2情景下的2011~2040、2041~2070、2071~2100平均产量分别为6 219、5 977、5 721 kg/hm²,与Baseline年相比均为减产趋势,分别减产3%、7%、11%。高排放的减产率比低排放要大。

英文摘要:

nder the conditions that insect pest and diseases were not considered the CERES-Wheat model in DSSAT 3．5 crop modeling was applied to predict potential yield of spring wheat in Ningxia．Through adjusting spring wheat cultivar coefficients of Yongliang No．4on Yongning County and validating the model cultivar coefficients were identified．Using these coefficients growth performance and potential yields were simulated on the same cultivar for15years （1986～2000） in Pingluo County．The results showed that between simulation and observation there was a good approach for potential yields and flowering days and a larger error for physiological maturity days．Under the future climate scenarios（A2and B2scenarios） in Huanghe irrigation area of Ningxia for39grids（25 km×25 km scale） potential yields were simulated for90years which were divided into three stages（2011～2040 2041～2070 2071～2100） and were compared with baseline climate scenario（1961～1990）．The results showed that potential yields under both future climate scenarios（A2 and B2） would decrease compared with that under the baseline climate scenario by3％ 8％ and19％ under three different stages of A2climate scenario respectively and by3％ 7％ and11％ under three different stages of B2climate scenario. The decrease rate under higher release of CO₂ was larger than that under lower release.

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