| 蒋菊芳,魏育国,刘明春.石羊河流域玉米棉铃虫发生气象条件分析预测[J].干旱地区农业研究,2009,27(3):221~225 |
| 石羊河流域玉米棉铃虫发生气象条件分析预测 |
| Meteorological condition analysis and prediction for occurrence of corn fields’Bollworm in Shiyang River basin |
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| DOI：10.7606/j.issn.1000-7601.2009.03.41 |
| 中文关键词: 棉铃虫 玉米田 气象条件 预测模型 石羊河流域 |
| 英文关键词:Bollworm (Heliothis armigera) Shiyang River basin corn field meteorological condition prediction model |
| 基金项目:公益性行业(气象)科研专项“西北地区旱作农业对气候变暖的响应特征及其预警和应对技术研究”(GYHY200806021) |
| 作者 | 单位 | | 蒋菊芳 | Key Laboratory of Arid Climatic Change and Reducing Disaster of Gansu Province Key Open Laboratory of Arid Climatic Change and Reducing Disaster of CMA Institute of Arid Meteorology China Meteorological Administration, Lanzhou, Gansu 730020, China；Wuwei Meteorological Bureau, Wuwei, Gansu 733000, China | | 魏育国 | Wuwei Meteorological Bureau, Wuwei, Gansu 733000, China | | 刘明春 | Wuwei Meteorological Bureau, Wuwei, Gansu 733000, China |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 为深入了解石羊河流域玉米田棉铃虫的发生规律和准确预测其危害特征,以石羊河流域19992007年玉米田棉铃虫和气象资料为基础,运用膨化相关S、PSS统计软件进行逐步回归、方差分析,分析、模拟了气象因子与卵始见期、卵高峰持续期、高峰期百穗卵量关系和预测模型,模型回代检验效果较好。结果表明:棉铃虫累计百株卵量增长动态符合典型的“S”生长曲线,Nt=206.8536/1+e3.8130-0.3703t,呈缓慢增长—快速增长—减速增长。棉铃虫卵始见期与光热因子呈负相关,与风、水分因子呈正相关;高峰期百穗卵量与此恰恰相反。热量多、气温高使棉铃虫的繁殖力和生存力提高,棉铃虫卵出现早、年发生程度重。棉铃虫卵期、蛹期相对干旱利于卵的羽化,使卵出现早、卵量增加。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| In order to study the occurrence rules and perfect forecast the harm characteristic of corn fields’ bollworn in Shiyang River basin, based on the datas of meteorological and bollworm in Shiyang River basin from 1999 to 2007, we, using puffs related and ‘spss’ software counts, analyzed and simulated prediction model between meteorological factors and the beginning see term of eggs, eggs’ peak continuing, eggs’ quantity of peak each hundred ears by stepwise regression and variance analysis.The prediction effect was preferable.The results showed that the accumulative dynamic of bollworm eggs was “S” growing curve, the equation was Nt=206.8536/(1+e3.8130-0.3703t) , assuming the slow growth～accelerating growth～decelerating growth.The light and heat factors were negative correlation to the beginning see term of eggs.The water factors and wind restrained positive correlation to the beginning see term of eggs.They were on the contrary to eggs' quantity of peak each hundred ears.If the heat was much and the temperature was high, the bollworn's fecundity and viability advanced, the eggs occurrence was early and the year occurrence degree was worse. If the egg and pupal stage were comparatively arid, it's good to eggs’ eclosio and good to egg’s quantity increasing and egg's early occurrence. |
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