| 卞德鹏,常庆瑞,柳艺博,段正松,高欣,张铁婵.黄土丘陵沟壑区耕地数量动态变化及其驱动力分析—以吴起县为例[J].干旱地区农业研究,2009,27(3):245~248 |
| 黄土丘陵沟壑区耕地数量动态变化及其驱动力分析—以吴起县为例 |
| Analysis of dynamic changes and driving forces of area of cultivated land in Loess hilly-gully region — A case study of Wuqi County |
| |
| DOI：10.7606/j.issn.1000-7601.2009.03.45 |
| 中文关键词: 耕地数量 驱动力 主成分分析 回归分析 |
| 英文关键词:area of cultivated land driving force method of principal component regression analysis |
| 基金项目:国家科技支撑计划(2006BAD03A0308)； 国家自然科学基金(30872073)； 西北农林科技大学2006年创新团队支持计划 |
|
| 摘要点击次数: 120 |
| 全文下载次数: 109 |
| 中文摘要: |
| 基于吴起县1950~2005年的统计和调查资料,分析了吴起县1950~2005年50多年来耕地数量变化的过程,利用主成分分析和多元线性回归方法初步探讨了1990~2005年间耕地数量变化的主要驱动因子。研究表明:50多年来,吴起县耕地数量总体上经历了快速减少、震荡波动、急剧增加和持续缓慢减少四个阶段,耕地总量减幅达39.6%;人均耕地面积减少31.7%,总体上呈明显的下降趋势;社会经济发展、人口压力、农业科技进步和政策等因素构成了耕地数量变化的主要驱动因子。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| The paper analyzes the process of area changes of cultivated land based on the statistic and investigation data in Wuqi County from 1950 to 2005.It tries to find out the main driving factors on the changes using principal component analysis and multiple linear regressions.The research shows that the total area of arable land in Wuqi County was decreasing 39.6% in the past 50 years, through the four phases of sharp decreasing, fluctuating, sharp increasing and slow decreasing.There was also an obvious downtrend on the average per capita amount of arable land which decreased 81.7%.The changes were mainly influenced by socioeconomic development, population pressure, progress of agricultural science and policies, etc. |
| 查看全文 查看/发表评论 下载PDF阅读器 |