| 魏丽华,任志远.陕西省人均生态足迹ARIMA模型测算[J].干旱地区农业研究,2009,27(4):245~248 |
| 陕西省人均生态足迹ARIMA模型测算 |
| Prediction of ecological footprint per capita in Shaanxi Province with ARIMA model |
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| DOI：10.7606/j.issn.1000-7601.2009.04.47 |
| 中文关键词: 生态足迹 时间序列 ARIMA模型 预测 |
| 英文关键词:ecological footprint time series ARIMA model forecast |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(40771019) |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 利用生态足迹方法，计算了1978～2006年陕西省的生态足迹，并利用时间序列模型ARIMA揭示了陕西省生态足迹随时间的变化规律。经过4种模型的比较，确定ARIMA(1,2,1)模型的AIC值最小，因此确定此模型。根据ARIMA(1,2,1)模型计算出的1978～2006年的人均生态
足迹拟合值很好拟合了原始计算值，相对误差较小。因此利用该模型预测了陕西省2007-2016年的人均生态足迹，各年分别为：1.80842，1.9476，2.09103，2.23888，2.39108，2.54767，2.70862，2.87395，3.04366，3.21773 hm2，从测算的数据中可以看出，陕西省的人均生态足迹持续上升速度仍然比较快，说明该省不可持续状况越来越严重。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| The ecological footprint method was used to calculate Shaanxi Province's ecological footprint from 1978～2006, and the time-series model ARIMA was used to reve
al the law of its variance with the change of the time. After comparing the four models, the ARIMA (1,2,1) model was chosen because its AIC value was the lowest. According to this model, the calculated result of ecological footprint per capita from 1978～2006 fitted well the original value, and the error is relatively smaller. So the model was used to predict the ecological footprint per capita in Shaanxi Province for 2007～2016, and the results were:1.80842, 1.9476, 2.09103, 2.23888, 2.39108, 2.54767, 2.70862, 2.87395, 3.04366 and 3.21773 hm2, from which we can find that Shaanxi Province's ecological footprint per capita increased by ever faster speed, and the province is faced with an increasingly unfavorable condition for sustainable development. |
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