郭良才,王伏村,吴芳蓉,刘晓云.河西走廊3大内陆河近51年出山径流分布特征[J].干旱地区农业研究,2009,27(5):209~215
河西走廊3大内陆河近51年出山径流分布特征
Distribution characteristics of Hexi corridor inland river basins’runoff in recent 51 years
  
DOI：10.7606/j.issn.1000-7601.2009.05.38
中文关键词:  河西走廊  三大河流  出山径流  变化趋势  Morlet变化
英文关键词:Hexi corridor  three large inland rivers  runoff  changing tendency  Morlet wavelet transformation
基金项目:国家科技攻关计划重大项目“祁连山空中云水资源开发利用研究”(2004BA901A16)； 甘肃省气象局气象科研项目“航天气象要素精细化预报服务系统”(2007-17)
作者单位
郭良才 Key Laboratory of Arid Climatic Changing and Reducing Disaster of Gansu Province Institute of Arid Meteorology China Meteorology Administration, Lanzhou, Gansu 730020, China；Jiuquan Meteorological Bureau, Jiuquan, Gansu 735000, China 
王伏村 Zhangye Meteorological Observatory, Zhangye, Gansu 734000, China 
吴芳蓉 Baiyin Meteorological Observatory, Baiyin, Gansu 730900, China 
刘晓云 Jiuquan Meteorological Bureau, Jiuquan, Gansu 735000, China 
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中文摘要:
      以河西走廊疏勒河、黑河和石羊河1955~2005年时段的河流流量和气象实测数据为资料,应用多种数值诊断方法,系统分析了流域内51年间出山径流的季节及年际变化等。结果表明,走廊内出山径流的年内分配差异较大;三大河流的夏汛流量的峰值出现在同一时期,出山径流量自西向东疏勒河、黑河和石羊河分别占年总出山径流量的74.75%、75.04%和80.94%;径流的年际变化,平水年份最多,占总序列的38.56%,偏枯年大于偏丰年7.84%,说明出山径流量呈减少趋势;累积滤波器和Kendall秩次相关分析结果表明,年出山径流的变化趋势总体呈缓慢下降趋势,三大河流的年出山径流系列累积平均曲线在2005年趋于重合;Morlet分析结果预示未来径流量将处于相对偏少期。
英文摘要:
      Based on using the river flux and actual meteorological data of three inland rivers (Shule, Hei and Shiyang) in Hexi corridor from 1955 to 2005 and application of several numerical methods, the annual and quarter variations of runoff in recent 51 years in the drainage basins was systematically analyzed, and the runoff variation of the rivers' outlet from mountains was estimated.The results showed that the runoff distribution in the corridor varies dramatically in a year, and the flood season's peak current capacity of the three rivers appears in an identical period.The amount of runoff from west to east occupies 74.75%, 75.04% and 80.94% of the year's total amount, respectively;for the annual variation, normal years are the most and their runoff occupies 38.56% of general sequence, while abundant and the lopsided year only differs 7.84%;the analysis with the methods of accumulative filter and Kendall order correlation indicates that the annual runoff variation tendency overall descends slowly, and the accumulatively mean curves of the three rivers' runoff tend to be a superposition in 2005;Morlet analysis of the flow rate can predict that it will be relatively dry in the future.
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