| 胡江玲,满苏尔·沙比提,娜斯曼·那斯尔丁.新疆阿图什市气候变化特征及其对农业生产的影响[J].干旱地区农业研究,2010,28(4):258~263 |
| 新疆阿图什市气候变化特征及其对农业生产的影响 |
| Analysis of climatic change and their impacts on agriculture of Atux City in Xinjiang |
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| DOI：10.7606/j.issn.1000-7601.2010.04.48 |
| 中文关键词: 气候变化 农业生产 新疆阿图什市 |
| 英文关键词:Atux City in Xinjiang climatic change agricultural production |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金资助项目(40961032) |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 利用阿图什市气象站19602006年气温和降水观测资料,以回归分析、趋势线分析方法分析了阿图什市近47 a来气温和降水的年际和季节变化特征及其对农业生产的影响。分析结果显示:(1)近47 a来阿图什市年均气温总体呈增加趋势,年均气温线性倾向率为0.13℃/10a。从20世纪60年代至70年代,气温在平均值附近波动且略有降低。自80年代以来波动较大,并明显升高,气温波动基本上与我国西北地区气温变化趋势一致。年内气温变化存在季节差异,冬、秋和春三个季节气温均呈上升趋势,夏季的气温略呈下降趋势,其中,冬、秋两季对全年平均气温增加贡献较大。(2)近47 a来年降水量总体呈增长趋势,年均降水量线性倾向率约为9.38 mm/10a,与我国西北气候由暖干向暖湿转变的趋势基本一致。20世纪60年代初至70年代末期年降水在多年平均值附近波动。自80年代以来波动较大,且变干、变湿趋势较显著。年内降水量变化有明显的季节差异,四季均呈增长趋势,增长幅度从大到小依次夏季、春季、秋季和冬季,其中,夏、春两季对全年降水量增长贡献较大,秋、冬两季贡献较小。(3)阿图什市气候变暖对越冬作物的冬前生长发育及喜热作物的全生育期生长发育较为有利,但气候变暖会引起土壤干旱化和农作物病虫害增加,将对多数农作物生长发育不利。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Based on the statistics of temperature and precipitation from 1960~2006 in Atux meteorological station, this paper analyzed the annual and seasonal changes of temperature and precipitation in Atux City by employing the meth-ods of regression analysis and trend line analysis. The results indicate that:(1)During the last 47 years，the tempera-
ture of the study area shows a trend of increasing, and the increasing rate was 0.13C/10a. From the 1960s~1970s,
the temperature in the study area was undulating around the average value and meanwhile decreased slightly. However, from 1970s, it showed larger undulation and increased significantly and kept the same trend with that of the Northwest China. The change of temperature in a year showed seasonal disparities and it had a tendency of increasing in winter, au-tumn and spring, and decreaing in summer. Among them the temperature changes in winter and spring had more contri-bution to the annual average temperature change. (2)During the last 47 years, the precipitation of the study area had a trend of increasing, and the average increasing rate was 9.38 mm/l0a. This result kept the same trend with that of the Northwest China, too. From the beginning of 1960s to the end of 1970s, the precipitation in the study area was undulat-ing around the average value and hadn' t made any significant change. But from 1980s, it showed a larger undulation and the changing trend of wet and dry was distinct. The change of precipitation in a year showed significant seasonal dispari-ties, in which summer had the largest increasing rate, followed by spring, autumn and winter. Among them the increase of the precipitation in summer and spring had more contribution to the annual average precipitation change, while it was smaller in autumn and winter. (3) The climatic warming in the study area is obviously good to the growth of the over win-ter crops and also to the growth of high temperature crops in its entire fertility period. But in the meanwhile, because the climatic warming would cause soil drought and increase of plant diseases and insect pests, it's not good to the growth of other kinds of crops. |
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