| 郭毅,赵景波.咸阳市建国60年来耕地利用因素与粮食生产相关分析[J].干旱地区农业研究,2010,28(5):203~210 |
| 咸阳市建国60年来耕地利用因素与粮食生产相关分析 |
| Analysis of correlations between cultivated land use change factors and grain production since the founding of PRC in Xiangyang |
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| DOI：10.7606/j.issn.1000-7601.2010.05.38 |
| 中文关键词: 粮食生产 耕地利用 相关分析 咸阳 |
| 英文关键词:grain productive cultivated land use correlation analysis Xianyang |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目（40672108）；中国科学院黄土与第四纪地质国家重点实验室项目（SKLLQG0605） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 首先从粮食产量计算模型中解析出耕地利用4因素，即耕地利用广度、耕地利用程度、耕地利用结构以及耕地利用集约度，进而采用相关分析法求得各阶段耕地利用4因素与粮食产量的相关系数，并参考其偏相关系数，研究建国60年来耕地利用这4方面对粮食生产影响的时序变化，结果表明：（1）不断加强的耕地利用集约度始终是第一位的贡献因素，但其影响趋势缓慢减弱；（2）耕地利用广度对粮食产量的影响趋势减弱,二者互动效应不明显，然而，在耕地面积大幅度减少和农业生产技术快速发展的情况下，耕地面积对粮食生产的约束力增强；（3）耕地利用程度与粮食生产的相关性增强趋势凸显，从而，加大耕地利用程度成为推动粮食生产的有效新动力。（4）耕地利用结构变化对粮食产量的贡献减弱，然而其对粮食生产的制约性渐强。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| On the basis of the total grain yield computation model, we analyzed 4 factors of cultivated land use, then computed the correlative coefficients and partial coefficients between the grain yield and the area, the degree of utilization, the use structure and intensity change in cultivated land use by using correlation analysis method in various periods. Based on the results of analysis, we discussed the effects of cultivated land use on grain production. The results show that: (1) The intensity change in cultivated land use is the most remarkable factor from beginning to end, but the influence tends to weaken slowly; (2) The influence of the area of cultivated land has the weakening tendency, comparatively, the binding force to grain yield is strengthening with farming land decreasing dramatically and the rapid development of technology in agricultural production; (3) The relation between grain yield and the degree of land utilization is closer, and it is possible to increase grain production by strengthening the degree of land utilization; (4) The changing of land use structure influences grain yield less, however, the corresponding conditionality is enhancing. |
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