| 庄晓翠,赵正波,杨森,张林梅.西北干旱区阿勒泰地区暖季干湿气候变化及R/S分析[J].干旱地区农业研究,2010,28(5):259~265 |
| 西北干旱区阿勒泰地区暖季干湿气候变化及R/S分析 |
| The dry-wet climate variation in warm season and R/S analysis of sensible heat in Altay Area of Northwest China |
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| DOI：10.7606/j.issn.1000-7601.2010.05.48 |
| 中文关键词: 阿勒泰 地表湿润指数 气候变化 R／S分析 |
| 英文关键词:Altay ground surface moisture index climatic change R/S analysis |
| 基金项目:兰州干旱气象科学研究基金项目（IAM200914）；新疆气象局项目“阿勒泰地区气候变化与干旱研究” |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 采用新疆阿勒泰地区7个气象站1961～2008年4～10月气温、降水量资料，通过Thomthwaite方法计算的潜在蒸发量确定地表湿润指数，运用Mann-Kendall趋势检验法，对阿勒泰地区地表湿润指数的变化进行分析。结果表明，该地区暖季大部分区域增温、降水量增加，地表湿润指数只有增暖不显著的阿勒泰站和增温次小的布尔津站呈显著增加的趋势，而全区增温最显著的东部没有明显变化，这说明温度变化在干湿变化中的重要影响；该地区干湿变化春秋季不显著，夏季有变湿的趋势；从区域分布来看，夏季阿勒泰、布尔津、福海站有显著变湿的趋势，秋季福海站有显著变干的趋势，其它站变化不显著。R/S分析表明过去48 a地表湿润指数、气温和降水量的增加（或减少）趋势在未来会逐渐转为减少（或增加）趋势。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Surface moisture index was determined by the potential evaporation calculated by Thomthwaite method, which is based on the 1961～2008 temperature, precipitation data from seven weather stations in Altay region of Xinjiang from April to October. The surface humid index changes of Altay region were studied by using Mann-Kendall trend test method. The results showed that the majority of the region warmed up in warm seasons and precipitation increased. As for surface moisture index, only Altay, where warming was not significant, and Burqin, where warming was still less significant, were on a significantly increasing trend, while the eastern part where warming was the most significant showed no significant change. The result indicates that the temperature changes have important influences on the wet and dry changing. Changes of wet and dry in the area are not significant in spring and autumn, but on a wetting trend in summer. From the point of view of regional distribution, the summer of Altay, Burqin and Fuhai stations sees a significant trend of wetting, Fuhai station is on a significant drying trend in autumn, and the other stations do not change significantly. R/S analysis showed that increasing (or decreasing) trend of surface humid index, temperature and precipitation in last 48 years will turn into a decreasing (or increasing) trend in the future. |
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