| 王新华,延军平,柴莎莎.近48年大同市旱涝灾害对气候变化的响应[J].干旱地区农业研究,2010,28(5):273~278 |
| 近48年大同市旱涝灾害对气候变化的响应 |
| Study on the characters of drought and flood response to climate change in Datong over the past 48 years |
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| DOI：10.7606/j.issn.1000-7601.2010.05.50 |
| 中文关键词: 气温突变 旱涝灾害 旱涝预测 响应 大同市 |
| 英文关键词:temperature jumping drought and flood prediction of drought and flood response Datong City |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目（40871052） |
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| 摘要点击次数: 215 |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 根据1960～2007年大同逐月平均气温和逐月降水资料，分析了近48 a大同市在全球增暖影响下气温和降水的变化；采用滑动t检验法和信噪比法分析了气温突变的时间点；在此基础上研究了大同市气温突变前后旱涝灾害的变化，并运用马尔可夫模型对未来5 a旱涝状况进行了预测。结果表明：近48 a来大同市气温呈明显的上升趋势；随着气温的升高，该市干旱灾害的比例增幅比较明显，特别是在气温突变后，干旱（
4级和5级）的概率达到63.64%，2009～2012年处于“偏旱”的概率较大。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Based on monthly average temperature and precipitation data in Datong City from 1960～2007, the average temperature and precipitat
ion changes are analyzed under the influence of global warming. The abrupt temperature is determined by sliding t-test and SNR method. On this basis, study is made on the droughts and floods around abrupt temperature change in Datong. The prediction states of drought and flood in the next 5 years is determined by Markov. The results indicate: The temperature has been rising obviously in Datong in recent 48 years; As the temperature rises, the proportion of drought increases obviously. Especially after the abrupt temperature change, the probability of drought state (4 and 5) is as high as 63.64%. There is a certain probability of weak drought state from 2009～2012. |
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