| 陈家金,王加义,林晶,杨凯,马治国,徐宗焕.基于信息扩散理论的东南沿海三省农业干旱风险评估[J].干旱地区农业研究,2010,28(6):248~252 |
| 基于信息扩散理论的东南沿海三省农业干旱风险评估 |
| Risk assessment of agricultural drought in three provinces of southeastern coast of China based on information diffusion theory |
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| DOI：10.7606/j.issn.1000-7601.2010.06.44 |
| 中文关键词: 信息扩散理论 东南沿海三省 农业干旱 风险评估 |
| 英文关键词:information diffusion theory three provinces of southeastem coast agricultural drought risk assess-ment |
| 基金项目:科技部农业科技成果转化资金项目(2009GB24160500)；中国气象局小型业务项目(2012209)；福建省气象局开放式气象科学研究基金项目(2009K01) |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 结合东南沿海三省历年农作物干旱受灾和成灾面积资料,利用最新正态信息扩散计算方法对区域农业干旱进行风险评估,结果认为东南沿海三省农作物干旱受灾风险大于成灾风险;当农作物干旱受灾风险水平≤7.5%,成灾风险水平≤6%时,东南沿海三省农业干旱受灾和成灾风险概率均表现为:广东>福建>浙江,当受灾风险水平>7.5%时,福建和广东农作物干旱受灾风险概率互有大小,而浙江省相对较小,成灾风险水平>6%时,农作物干旱成灾风险概率值表现为:福建>广东>浙江;风险评估结果与实际情况较为吻合。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| The risk of agricultural drought in a region was assessed by the latest normal information diffusion method, combining with the data of agricultural drought damage-suffering areas and the disaster- affected areas in three
provinces of southeasterm coast of China for past years. It was suggested that the damage suffering risk was higher than the
disaster- afected risk in three provinces of southeastern coast of China. When the level of the damage suffering risk was
less than or equal to 7.5%，and the level of the disaster- afected risk was less than or equal to 6%，the probability of
the damage-suffering risk and the disaster-affected risk displayed that: the biggest probability was in Guangdong
province, and the second was in Fujian province, while the smallest was in Zhejiang province. When the level of the
damage-suffering risk was more than 7.5%，the probability of the damage-suffering risk might be bigger in Fujian
province or in Guangdong province, while the probability was relatively small in Zhejiang. When the level of the disaster-affected risk was more than 6%，the probability of the disaster-afected risk displayed that: the biggest probability was in Fujian province, and the second was in Cuangdong province, while the smallest was in Zhejiang province. The result of the risk evaluation almost accorded with the actual situation. |
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