| 白美兰,郝润全,高建国,李喜仓,杨晶.内蒙古地区气候资源生产潜力及其人口承载力分析评估[J].干旱地区农业研究,2010,28(6):253~257 |
| 内蒙古地区气候资源生产潜力及其人口承载力分析评估 |
| Climatic resources potential productivity and its population capacity evaluation in Inner Mongolia |
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| DOI：10.7606/j.issn.1000-7601.2010.06.45 |
| 中文关键词: 气候生产潜力 资源承载力 分析评估 内蒙古 |
| 英文关键词:climatic resources potential productivity resources capacity analysis and ev aluation Inner Mongolia |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金“气候波动对典型草原蒸散合水分平衡影响研究” |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 利用内蒙古地区46 a的气象和粮食产量以及社会经济等资料,运用Tharnthwaite Memorial和迈阿密气候资源生产潜力计算模型以及数理统计方法,分析评估了目前和未来内蒙古地区气候变化对气候资源生产潜力和承载能力的影响,得出:(1)内蒙古地区温度生产潜力的利用率为24%,降水生产潜力利用率略有增加,为47%,多年平均气候资源利用率为45%,表明内蒙古地区植物实际的生产力远未达到气候资源生产潜力,约有50%多的潜力可以开发。(2)目前情况下,内蒙古地区气候资源承载力较高,但东西部地区气候资源差异较大。内蒙古东部偏南以及内蒙古中部偏南地区承载能力最高,可承载67.6人/hm2;内蒙古广大牧区可承载能力相对较低,为45.9人/hm2;西部北部最低,不足4人/hm2,其中阿拉善盟地区不到1人/hm2。(3)随着未来3050 a内蒙古地区气温升高2℃、降水增加6%的情况下,内蒙古地区气候资源承载能力将进一步提升。但由于各地区未来气候变化的不均匀性,气候资源生产潜力波动性较大,承载能力地区间差异较大。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Using the meteorological, food production and socioeconomic data of 46 a in Inner Mongolia, by means of
Tharnthwaite Memorial ，Miami model for climatic resources potential productivity and mathematics stat istics method, the effects of climate change on climatic resources potent ial productivity and its population capacity are analyzed. It is con-cluded that the utilization rate of temperature potential productivity is 24% in the food production while that of precipita-tion potential productivity is 47 %，and the average utilizat ion ratio of climat ic resources is only 45% for years, which in-dicate that the plant production is far short of the climatic resources potent ial productivity and there is over 50% potential productivity can be developed . The climat ic resources capacity in Inner Mongolia is high now，but there is difference be-tween eastern and western parts. The climatic resources capacity in the east -southeast in Inner Mongolia and the south part of middle Inner Mongolia is the highest which is around 6~7.6 people/ hm2；the climatic resources capacity in the east -southeast in pasturing area is lower which is around 4~5.9 people/ hm2; the climat ic resources capacity in the north and west parts is the lowest which is less than 4 people/hm2 and it is less than 1 person/ hm2 in Alashan. With the cli-mate warming for 2C and the precipitation increasing by 6% in the next 30 to 50 years，the climatic resources capacity will enhance，but because of the different climate warming in different parts of Inner Mongolia, the climatic resources po-tential productivity and its capacity have large inter-regional differences. |
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