| 刘映宁,王景红,李艳莉,梁轶,高峰,贺文丽.运用马尔科夫链方法预测陕西苹果花期冻害年型[J].干旱地区农业研究,2011,29(2):272~275 |
| 运用马尔科夫链方法预测陕西苹果花期冻害年型 |
| Annual type prediction for apple blossom frost damage based on Markov Chain in Shaanxi |
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| DOI：10.7606/j.issn.1000-7601.2011.02.46 |
| 中文关键词: 苹果 花期冻害 年型 预测 马尔科夫链 |
| 英文关键词:apple frost damage annual type prediction Markov Chain |
| 基金项目:陕西省气象局2009年度研究型业务重点科研项目“政策性农业保险气象服务研究与开发”(2009Z-3) |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 依据陕西29个苹果基地县1971~2007年4月极端最低气温资料,将陕西果区苹果花期冻害年型划分为严重冻害(NTd≤-2℃≥10),中等冻害(NTd≤-2℃<10 & NTd≤0℃≥15),轻度冻害(NTd≤-2℃<10&NTd≤0℃<15&NTd≤2℃≥19),和正常年型(NTd≤-2℃<10&NTd≤0℃<15&NTd≤2℃<19)四个状态。在逐年状态分型的基础上,运用马尔科夫链转移概率计算模式计算了各种状态下的转移概率矩阵,建立了陕西苹果花期冻害年型的马尔科夫链预测模型,进行了预测实例分析和回代检验,准确率达83%,并提出了使用中的注意事项。该模型预测效果较好,可为防灾减灾赢得时间,提供依据。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| By using extreme temperature in April from 1971~2007 in 29 apple-producing counties, annual type division index of frost damage in apple blossom stage in Shaanxi was proposed:serious frost damage (NTd≤-2℃≥ 10)，
moderate frost damage (NTd≤-2℃<10 & NTd≤0℃≥15)，light frost damage (NTd≤-2℃<10 & NTd≤0℃<15 & NTd≤2℃≥19)，and normal frost damage (NTd≤-2℃<10 & NTd≤0℃<15 & NTd≤2℃< 19). We calculated transition probability matrix under various conditions by using Markov Chain transition probability calculations based on the state classification year by year, and then the Markov Chain Model for Prediction of frost damage in apple blossom stage in Shaanxi was es-tablished. We conducted the case study and returm test of annual type prediction，and the results showed better effect，with accuracy rate of 83%，and what should be paid attention to in the use of the model was suggested. The model has better results of prediction，and it can gain time for the disaster prevention and mitigation and provide basis for it. |
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