王建洪,李晶,任志远.陕北农牧交错带草地面积时空演变与趋势预测[J].干旱地区农业研究,2011,29(3):209~212
陕北农牧交错带草地面积时空演变与趋势预测
Spatial and temporal evolution of grassland area and prediction of its changing trend in farming-pastoral ecotone of Northern Shaannxi
  
DOI:10.7606/j.issn.1000-7601.2011.03.39
中文关键词:  草地面积  时空演变  趋势预测  陕北农牧交错带
英文关键词:grassland area  spatial and temporal evolution  prediction  farming-pastoral ecotone of Northern Shaanx
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(41001388);国家自然科学基金项目(40771019);中央高校基本科研项目(GK200902023)
作者单位
王建洪 College of Tourism and EnvironmentShaanxi Normal University Xi'an, Shaanxi 710062China 
李晶 College of Tourism and EnvironmentShaanxi Normal University Xi'an, Shaanxi 710062China 
任志远 College of Tourism and EnvironmentShaanxi Normal University Xi'an, Shaanxi 710062China 
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中文摘要:
      利用1989、2000及2006年3期TM遥感影像,采用遥感技术和地理信息系统相结合的方法,对陕北农牧交错带草地面积的时空演变进行分析。分析表明:从1989年到2000年,由于土地开发利用频繁,草地面积退化较快;从2000年到2006年,草地面积减少得比较缓慢。并利用Markov模型对陕北农牧交错带草地面积的变化情况进行模拟预测,预测表明:陕北农牧交错带草地面积将进一步减少,至2030年,草地面积将减少了21.36万hm2,草地的面积将继续减少。
英文摘要:
      By using the Landsat TM images of 1989, 2000 and 2006 and with the help of GIS and RS,the spatial and temporal evolution of grassland area were analyzed in farming pastoral ecotone of Northern Shannxi. The results showed that because the land use was frequent, the degeneration of grassland area was quick from 1989~ 2000. However,it got slow from 2000~2006. With the help of the Markov s model,the change trend of grassland area was predicted by simulation. The prediction showed that the deterioration area of the grassland is keeping expanding,and the area will decrease by 213 600 hm2 from 2006~ 2030.
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