江和文,张录军,曹士民,郭婷婷,廖晶晶,张丽敏.辽宁省主要粮食作物产量灾损风险评估[J].干旱地区农业研究,2011,29(4):238~244
辽宁省主要粮食作物产量灾损风险评估
Risk assessment of grain yield loss caused by meteorological disasters in Liaoning Province
  
DOI：10.7606/j.issn.1000-7601.2011.04.44
中文关键词:  粮食产量  灾损风险  气象产量
英文关键词:grain yield  risk of yield loss caused by meteorological disasters  meteorological yield
基金项目:中国气象局气候变化专项-东北粮食生产格局的气候变化影响与适应（CCSF-09-13）
作者单位
江和文 辽宁省葫芦岛市气象局, 辽宁 葫芦岛 125000； 南京大学大气科学学院，江苏 南京 210093 
张录军 南京大学大气科学学院，江苏 南京 210093 
曹士民 辽宁省葫芦岛市气象局, 辽宁 葫芦岛 125000 
郭婷婷 辽宁省气象局， 辽宁 沈阳 110003 
廖晶晶 辽宁省葫芦岛市气象局, 辽宁 葫芦岛 125000 
张丽敏 辽宁省葫芦岛市气象局, 辽宁 葫芦岛 125000 
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中文摘要:
      从产量灾损风险的角度，利用1971～2008年辽宁省主要粮食作物玉米和水稻的产量资料，构建了辽宁省粮食产量灾损风险评估模型，从历年平均减产率、灾年减产率变异系数、产量灾损风险指数等角度综合评估了辽宁省粮食产量的灾损风险。结果表明：辽宁大部都是玉米生产的低风险区，高风险区主要分布在朝阳和锦州地区，大连、鞍山和葫芦岛为中风险区；水稻生产的低风险区主要位于盘锦、营口地区，高风险区位于辽宁北部的铁岭、抚顺及辽西的锦州地区，其余地区为中风险区。38 a间，玉米灾年的年数为11～18 a，历年平均减产率为9.2%～26.7%，灾年减产率变异系数为0.529～0.732，水稻的灾年年数为6～14 a，历年平均减产率为6.7%～12.3%，灾年减产率变异系数为0.399～0.722。
英文摘要:
      From the perspective of risk analysis of yield loss caused by meteorological disasters, and used of the grain yield data from 1971～2008, an assessment model is constructed to analyze the risk of disastrous yield loss of major grain crops in Liaoning Province, namely corn and rice. Then the risks of grain yield loss in Liaoning caused by natural disasters are comprehensively analyzed from the aspects of average reduction rate of past years, the variation coefficient of yield reduction rate in disastrous years, risk index of yield losses, and etc. The results show that most areas across Liaoning are lowly-risky for corn production; the highly-risky areas are mainly in Jinzhou and Chaoyang, while Dalian, Anshan and Huludao belong to medium-risky zone. The lowly-risky areas for rice production are found mainly in Panjin and Yingkou, while the highly risky zone is located in Tieling, Fushun of north Liaoning and Jinzhou of the west; the other areas of the province are all medium-risky for rice production. In the past 38 years, about corn, the number of disastrous years were from 11～18, the average reduction rate of all the years was from 9.2%～26.7%, the variation coefficient was from 0.529～0.732; and about rice, the number of disastrous years were from 6～14, the average reduction rate of all years was from 6.7%～12.3%, the variation coefficient was from 0.399～0.722.
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