| 李建平,上官周平.陕西省粮食生产与粮食安全趋势预测[J].干旱地区农业研究,2011,29(4):245~251 |
| 陕西省粮食生产与粮食安全趋势预测 |
| Trend forecast of grain production and food security in Shaanxi Province |
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| DOI：10.7606/j.issn.1000-7601.2011.04.45 |
| 中文关键词: 移动平均法 粮食生产潜力 气象产量 粮食单产 陕西省 |
| 英文关键词:moving average method grain production potential climatic yield grain yield per unit area Shaanxi Province |
| 基金项目:中国科学院知识创新工程重大项目课题(KSCX1-YW-12); 国家科技支撑项目(2006BAD09B04) |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 基于移动平均法，应用陕西省近31 a粮食产量数据对其未来10 a粮食综合生产潜力进行了短期预测。结果表明：陕西省粮食单产提升幅度较小，年均每公顷增长46.2 kg；粮食总产上升缓慢，年均增长10万t；在粮食产量构成中，小麦产量及其比例下降，玉米产量及其比例上升，水稻与大豆产量及其比重变化较小；各粮食作物单产均稳步提升；人口持续增长是人均粮食占有量提高缓慢的关键制约因子。结合陕西省粮食生产现状，从人口、耕地保育、节水农业、科技与财政投入、粮食储备和环境保护等方面提出粮食综合潜力开发的未来策略。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Based on moving average method and data of grain production in Shaanxi Province over the past 31 years, its short-term grain production potential of the next 10 years was predicted. The results indicate that: grain yield per unit area of Shaanxi will increase with a small scale of 46.2 kg/hm2 annually for another decade; and its total grain output increases slowly,
with an average annual growth of 104 tons; In components of grain yield, wheat production and its ratio in tatal output are declining, but corn production is increasing, while the change of rice and soybean yield and their proportion are negligible; The yield of each crop per unit area is steadily increasing; A key
factor to hinder the increase of grain possession per capita is the ever increase of population. According to the actual situation of grain production in the province, we present some developing strategies of comprehensive grain production potential in respects of population control, land conservation, water-saving agriculture, technology and financial investment, grain reserve, environmental protection and so on. |
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