渭河源区气候变化及其对水资源的影响

姚玉璧; 张秀云; 段志勇; 宋永杰; 杨建军; 王殿军

姚玉璧,张秀云,段志勇,宋永杰,杨建军,王殿军.渭河源区气候变化及其对水资源的影响[J].干旱地区农业研究,2011,29(5):247~252

渭河源区气候变化及其对水资源的影响

Climate Evolution and Its Impact to Water Resource Changer in Source of Weihe River Basin

DOI：10.7606/j.issn.1000-7601.2011.05.44

中文关键词: 气候变化水资源干燥指数渭河源区

英文关键词:Climatic changing Water resource aridity index Weihe source

基金项目:国家公益性行业（气象）科研专项（GYHY201106029、GYHY200806021）；国家自然科学基金重点项目（40830957）；甘肃省气象局第五批“十人计划”项目；干旱气象科学研究基金项目（IAM200904、IAM200913）

作者	单位
姚玉璧	中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所,甘肃省干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室,中国气象局干旱气候变化与减灾重点开放实验室，甘肃兰州 730020；甘肃省定西市气象局，甘肃定西 743000
张秀云	甘肃省定西市气象局，甘肃定西 743000
段志勇	甘肃省定西市水文水资源勘测局，甘肃定西 743000
宋永杰	甘肃省白银市气象局，甘肃白银 700900
杨建军	甘肃省定西市气象局，甘肃定西 743000
王殿军	甘肃省定西市气象局，甘肃定西 743000

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中文摘要:

利用渭河源区气象观测资料和水资源定位观测资料，分析气候变化特征、水资源变化特征，及其二者的关系，建立水资源气候模式。分析表明：渭河源区降水量年际变化呈下降趋势，降水量变化曲线线性拟合倾向率在-10.442～-10.417 mm/10a之间，降水量递减以秋季、夏季降水量递减为主。气温年际变化趋势呈显著上升趋势，气温变化曲线线性拟合倾向率在0.169～0.201℃/10a之间，增温率以冬季最大，年际变化趋势从20世纪70年代之后持续上升。年干燥指数变化呈显著上升趋势，年干燥指数变化曲线线性拟合倾向率在0.058～0.113/10a之间。近50年来渭河源区气候趋于暖干化。水资源呈显著下降趋势，倾向率为-0.044×10⁸ m³/10a,年际变化存在2～3 a、5 a的年际周期变化。水资源与降水量呈显著正相关，与气温、干燥指数呈显著负相关，降水量减少、气温上升、干燥指数增加，导致水资源减少。

英文摘要:

Based on the surface meteorology and water resource observation data in source of Weihe river, the characters of climate evolution and water resource change, and their relationship are analyzed, in addition the water resources climate model is also established. The result show that the inter-annual change of precipitation display descending trend, the tendency rate is -10.442～-10.417 mm/10a, this reduction mainly happened in autumn and summer. The results also show that the inter annual change of temperature display marked ascending trend, the tendency rate is 0.169～0.201℃/10a, this accessional ap peared most in winter, this ascending trend appeared from 1970s and it's sharp point was at 1970's, the aridity index also display prominent ascending trend, the tendency rate is 0.058～0.113/10a, in recent 50 years the climate of the Weihe source show warming and drying trend, It is also found that the water resources display remarkable descending trend, the tendency rate is -0.044×10⁸ m³/10a, it exist 2～3 a、5 a period, water resource show marked positive correlation with precipitation, while it show marked negative correlation with temperature and aridity index, the water source will decrease if precipitation decrease and temperature ascend and dry index ascend.

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