| 蔡霞,蔡琳,李春华,吴占华.晋北地区降水量时空变化及突变分析[J].干旱地区农业研究,2012,30(2):247~254 |
| 晋北地区降水量时空变化及突变分析 |
| Analysis of characteristics of precipitation variation and mutation in Northern Shanxi |
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| DOI：10.7606/j.issn.1000-7601.2012.02.42 |
| 中文关键词: 晋北地区 降水 突变分析 |
| 英文关键词:Northern Shanxi precipitation mutation analysis |
| 基金项目:山西省气象局青年课题（SXKQNQH20116255） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 利用晋北地区18个台站1960—2008年的月降水资料，对其降水量的时空变化特征进行了分析。结果表明：年、夏季和秋季降水量总体上呈下降趋势；春季和冬季降水呈增加趋势。从空间分布特征来看，年和四季降水量由北向南逐渐增多。年降水量的线性趋势系数大部分台站表现为负值；而春季各站均为正值；夏季仅繁峙为正值；秋季西南部为负值,东北部为正值；冬季18个台站正负均等。采用M K突变曲线、滑动t检验法、累积距平法三种气候突变检验方法对晋北地区降水的统计检验结果均表明，年降水在1979年发生了由多到少的一个跃变；春季在1964年附近和1991年发生由多到少的转折；夏季1996年是由多到少的一个明显转折点。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Based on the monthly precipitation data from 1960—2008 of 18 observation stations of Northern Shanxi, the spatial temporal variation characteristics of precipitation are analyzed. The main results are as follows: The annual precipitation and the precipitation in summer and autumn is holistically in an increas
e trend, while the precipitation in spring and winter is holistically in a decrease trend. From the variations of spatial distribution, the annual and the seasonal precipitation increases gradually from the north to the south. The linear trend coefficients of annual precipitation are negative in most stations, but positive for the whole study area in spring, only positive in Fanshi in summer, negative in the southwestern region and positive in the northeastern region in autumn, with an equipotent probability of positive and negative in winter. The jumps are examined with methods including Mann-Kendall test, moving t-test and cumulative anomaly. The results show that an obvious abrupt change point in 1979 can be detected. From that time on, the annual precipitation begins to decline evidently. The abrupt change time in spring is near 1964 and 1991, while it is 1996 in
summer. |
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