杨云川,肖飞鹏,程根伟,陈运东,康永辉,石刘宏幸.广西大石山区农业干旱灾害综合风险管理战略[J].干旱地区农业研究,2012,30(3):267~273
广西大石山区农业干旱灾害综合风险管理战略
Comprehensive risk management strategy for agricultural drought disaster in Dashishan region of Guangxi
  
DOI：10.7606/j.issn.1000-7601.2012.03.45
中文关键词:  干旱灾害  风险评价  风险概率  综合风险管理
英文关键词:drought disaster  risk assessment  risk probability  comprehensive risk management
基金项目:国家自然科学基金(39930130)
作者单位
杨云川 中国科学院成都山地灾害与环境研究所,四川 成都 610041
中国科学院研究生院,北京 100049 
肖飞鹏 广西水利电力职业技术学院,广西 南宁 530023 
程根伟 中国科学院成都山地灾害与环境研究所,四川 成都 610041 
陈运东 广西省水利厅,广西 南宁 530023 
康永辉 广西水利电力勘测设计研究院,广西 南宁 530023 
石刘宏幸 广西水利电力职业技术学院,广西 南宁 530023 
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中文摘要:
      伴随着我国干旱灾害管理从危机模式到综合风险模式的转变,以广西大石山岩溶区为研究对象,在对该区近20年农业干旱灾害调查分析的基础上,采用模糊信息扩散方法对该区26个县农业干旱风险进行了评估.研究结果表明:广西大石山区近20年来平均每2年至少会发生农业干旱1次,且强度呈逐渐增加的变化趋势；该区平均发生轻度、中度、重度和特大农业干旱灾害的频次分别为1.3年/次、2.2年/次、6.3年/次、15.3年/次。根据区域干旱灾害风险模型:区域干旱灾害风险=(危险性H×暴露性E×脆弱性V)/抗旱减灾能力C,加强该区抗旱减灾能力建设是有效应对日益复杂的干旱灾害和减轻灾害风险最有效的途径和手段。广西大石山区应开展具有可操作性的干旱防备与应对系统以实现该区干旱灾害综合风险管理战略的实施。
英文摘要:
      Along with the transformation of drought disaster management in China from a crisis mode to a compre-hensive risk model. With the karst area of Dashishan region in Guangxi as research area, investigation and analysis of a-gricultural drought disaster were made in this region during last 20 years, and diffusion method of fuzzy information was adopted to calculate and study agricultural drought disaster risk assessment. The results indicate that agricultural drought disaster occurs once every 2 years in last 20 years, and the intensity increased gradually. With respect to drought levels of extreme, severe, moderate and slight, the frequency is averagely 1.3, 2.2, 6.3 and 15.3 years every one time re-spectively. According to the regional drought disaster risk model:DR=(H×E×V)/C, strengthening the capability of drought mitigation is the most effective way and means to cope and mitigate the drought disaster and risk. Overall, pre-vention and response capability of the drought disaster lags far behind to meet the objective of integrated risk manage-ment. Therefore, developing the operable Drought Prevention and Preparation System will effectively promote the strategy implementation of integrated risk management.
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