| 李静,朱农,李凤桂,李发东,孙振中.近10年黄河三角洲地区粮食产量及灰色预测[J].干旱地区农业研究,2012,30(5):15~19 |
| 近10年黄河三角洲地区粮食产量及灰色预测 |
| Grain production of last 10 years and its grey prediction in the Yellow River Delta |
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| DOI：10.7606/j.issn.1000-7601.2012.05.03 |
| 中文关键词: 灰色预测 粮食产量 不确定性分析 黄三角地区 |
| 英文关键词:Grey prediction crop production uncertainty analysis Yellow River Delta |
| 基金项目:中国科学院“百人计划”项目 |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 通过收集粮食产量的历史数据，分析了黄河三角洲地区近10年来粮食产量的变化趋势、19个县（市、区）的粮食贡献以及其空间分布格局。基于
灰色理论和Matlab软件编程建立了现代黄河三角洲地区的粮食产量定量预测模型，并进行不确定性分析。结果表明，黄河三角洲地区未来几年内粮食产量呈上升趋势，GM(1,1)模型模
拟预测值序列与实际值序列残差的关联度R、均方差比值C及小误差概率均判定该模型的精度为一级，误差较小，预测结果可靠。本研究所得结果可为粮农管理部门做相关决策提供依据。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Based on the historical data of crop production from 2000 to 2009, the 10 years change trends of crop production in the Yellow River Delta as well as the spatial distribution and crop production of 19 counties in this area were analyzed. According to the GM (1, 1) theory and by use of Matlab software, a quantitative model for forecasting the crop production was developed. The uncertainty analysis was performed at last. The results showed that the crop production of the Yellow River Delta would continue to rise in the next several years. The correlation degree R between the simulated values and actual values, the mean-square deviation, and the residual errors verified that the precision of the model prediction belongs to level I. The predicted results can be a basis of scientific decision for the local government. |
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