甘肃黄土高原不同海拔气候变化对马铃薯生育脆弱性的影响

姚玉璧; 王润元; 赵鸿; 王瑞君

姚玉璧,王润元,赵鸿,王瑞君.甘肃黄土高原不同海拔气候变化对马铃薯生育脆弱性的影响[J].干旱地区农业研究,2013,31(2):52~58

甘肃黄土高原不同海拔气候变化对马铃薯生育脆弱性的影响

Impacts of climatic change on potato growth vulnerability at different elevation in the Loess Plateau of Gansu

DOI：10.7606/j.issn.1000-7601.2013.02.11

中文关键词: 黄土高原气候变化马铃薯生育脆弱性

英文关键词:Loess Plateau of Gansu climate changing potato growth vulnerability

基金项目:国家重大科学研究计划（2012CB955304）；国家公益性行业（气象）科研专项（GYHY201106029、GYHY200806021）；国家自然科学基金重点项目(40830957)；中国气象局气候变化专项（CCSF201207）；干旱气象科学研究基金项目（IAM201111）

作者	单位
姚玉璧	中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所甘肃省干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室中国气象局干旱气候变化与减灾重点开放实验室，甘肃兰州 730020；甘肃省定西市气象局，甘肃定西 743000
王润元	中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所甘肃省干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室中国气象局干旱气候变化与减灾重点开放实验室，甘肃兰州 730020
赵鸿	中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所甘肃省干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室中国气象局干旱气候变化与减灾重点开放实验室，甘肃兰州 730020
王瑞君	黄河水利委员会宁夏水文水资源局巴彦高勒蒸发实验站，内蒙古磴口 015200

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中文摘要:

利用黄土高原不同海拔高度马铃薯生长发育定位观测资料和对应平行气象观测资料，分析气候变化对马铃薯生长发育敏感性的影响，以及马铃薯生育脆弱性变化特征。结果表明，研究区域降水量年际变化呈下降趋势，降水量变化曲线线性拟合倾向率在马铃薯生长季5—10月绝对值最大，表现为高海拔区大于低海拔区的特征。气温年际变化呈上升趋势,气温变化曲线线性拟合倾向率表现为高海拔区小于低海拔区的特征。作物生长季干燥指数呈显著上升趋势，干燥指数变化曲线线性拟合倾向率也表现为高海拔区小于低海拔区的特征，20世纪90年代后干燥指数明显上升，气候趋于暖干化。影响马铃薯生长发育的主导气象因子是气温，气候变暖，气温增高，导致马铃薯生育前期的营养生长阶段缩短，而生殖生长阶段延长，全生育期延长。块茎膨大期气温增高导致马铃薯生育脆弱性增加，马铃薯对气温变化的敏感性和气温增高导致马铃薯生育脆弱性均随海拔增高而降低。开花期降水减少导致马铃薯生长发育及产量形成的脆弱性增加，此时段以干旱为主的气象灾害频率的增加使马铃薯生育脆弱性增加，马铃薯对降水量变化的敏感性和降水量减少导致马铃薯生育脆弱性却随海拔增高而降低。

英文摘要:

Based on potato growth data and parallel observation meteorological data at different elevation in the Loess Plateau, the impacts of climate changing on potato growth and the characteristics of potato growth vulnerability variation had been analyzed. The results showed that precipitation turned to be a descending trend and the absolute value of fitting trend rate reached the maximum in May to October. The phenomenon appeared more obvious at higher elevation area than that of lower elevation area. It also indicated that the temperature turned to be an increasing trend and value of fitting trend rate in higher elevation was under that in lower elevation. The aridity index increased obviously from year to year, especially in 1990s and climate turned to be hot-drying. The temperature is the main meteorological factors that influenced the potato growth. Because of climate changing, the vegetation growth period was shortened, the reproductive growth period was delayed and the whole growth period extended. The vulnerability of potato increased in tuber expands period when higher temperature met. The temperature sensibility of potatoes decreased and vulnerability decreased with the elevation lifting. The vulnerability of potato production forming increased in flowering period when the precipitation decreased. The drought disaster added the risk rate of potato growing in that period. The vulnerability that caused by precipitation sensibility of potatoes and precipitation decreasing reduced with elevation lifting too.

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