吴雪梅，塔西甫拉提·特依拜，买买提·沙吾提，张 飞.基于PSO-PPE模型的和田水资源承载力评价研究[J].干旱地区农业研究,2014,32(2):228~233
基于PSO-PPE模型的和田水资源承载力评价研究
Evaluation Research for the Carrying Capacity of Water Resources in Hetian Based on the PSO-PPE Model
  
DOI：10.7606/j.issn.1000-7601.2014.02.037
中文关键词:  水资源承载力  PSO-PPE模型  和田
英文关键词:carrying capacity of water resources  PSO-PPE model  Hetian Prefecture
基金项目:国家自然科学基金重点基金联合项目(U1138303)；教育部长江学者和创新团队项目(IRT1180)
作者单位
吴雪梅，塔西甫拉提·特依拜，买买提·沙吾提，张 飞 （新疆大学资源与环境科学学院， 新疆大学绿洲生态教育部重点实验室， 新疆 乌鲁木齐 830000） 
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中文摘要:
      为了定量评价和田地区水资源承载力，指导该地区水资源与社会、经济和生态系统协调发展，本文从“水资源—社会—经济—生态环境”复合系统角度出发，构建具有区域特色的水资源承载力评价指标体系，采用基于粒子群优化算法的投影寻踪评价模型（PSO-PPE模型），对和田地区2005—2012年水资源承载力进行综合评价，并结合回归分析法对具有明显影响作用的指标进行分析。结果表明：和田八年来水资源承载力处于Ⅱ级，属于弱无压力状态，反映该区水资源承载力满足目前社会经济的发展需求，但不表明该地区不属于缺水地区；其中人均水资源量、水资源开发利用率、城镇化率的高低对水资源承载力综合评价值的大小具有较高影响；从长期发展规划来看，需结合干旱区绿洲发展特点，制定科学合理的水资源管理和利用措施，以保障水资源与社会经济的可持续发展。
英文摘要:
      In order to quantitatively evaluate the carrying capacity of water resources in Hetian Prefecture, guide the cooperative development of the water resources with the society, economy and ecological system in this region, this paper starts from the compound system of water resources-society -ecological environment, establish the evaluation indexed system for the carrying capacity of water resources with the regional characteristics. Then using the PSO-PPE model based on the particle swarm optimization, and analyzed the indexes which has a significant effect combined with the regression analysis method. The results showed that: The carrying capacity of water resources in Hetian was the class II within the eight years, it belonged to the situation of weak and less pressure, reflected that carrying capacity of water resources in the region can be met the current social economic developing requirement. But it does not indicate that this region isn’t belong to the water-scarce areas; Among them the height and lowness of the water resource per capita, the development and utilization rate of water resources, the urbanization rate have the rather high impac t to the size of the evaluation value for the carrying capacity of water resources. Judging from the long-term development planning, it needs to combine with the characteristics of the oasis development in arid areas, to draw up the scientific and rational water resources management and utilization measures to ensure the sustainable development of the water resources and socio-economy.
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