| 李海花,刘大锋，段淑芳,李新建.新疆阿勒泰地区1963—2012年最大冻土深度的时空分布及其对气温变化的响应[J].干旱地区农业研究,2014,32(5):251~258 |
| 新疆阿勒泰地区1963—2012年最大冻土深度的时空分布及其对气温变化的响应 |
| The spatial-temporal distribution change of maximum frozen soil depth and temperature change in altay region of Xinjiang Province from 1963 to 2012 |
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| DOI：10.7606/j.issn.1000-7601.2014.05.043 |
| 中文关键词: 最大冻土深度 时空分布 气温 阿勒泰地区 |
| 英文关键词:maximum frozen soil depth spatial-temporal distribution temperature altay region |
| 基金项目:国家重大科学研究计划项目(2012CB956204) |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 利用阿勒泰地区1963—2012年7个气象站的最大冻土深度、平均气温，极端最低气温资料，采用回归分析、相关性检验、Mann-Kendall突变检测、Hurst提出的R/S分析等方法，对阿勒泰地区最大冻土深度的时间演变、空间分布及与气温的关系进行了分析。结果表明:吉木乃站的均方差和变差系数最大；阿勒泰地区最大冻土深度以0.574 cm·a-1的速度显著减少；年最大冻土深度几乎出现在2—3月；阿勒泰地区的最大冻土深度的突变时间是在1986—1987年，发生了下降趋势的突变，福海和富蕴站没有发生突变；阿勒泰地区年极端最大值、最大值的平均值、平均最大值均出现在青河站；年最大冻土深度与平均气温和极端最低气温呈显著负相关，其相关系数分别为-0.508和-0.293。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Based on the Maximum Frozen Soil Depth and annual mean temperature and Extreme low temperature across seven meteorological stations in Altay region from 1963—2012, using linear regression, Mann-Kendall mutation detection, Hurst R/S analysis method, the temporal evolution and spatial distribution of maximum depth and temperatures of frozen soil were analyzed. The results show: the mean-square deviation and coefficient of variation of maximum appears in Jimunai; the maximum depth have declined by 0.574 cm·a-1; The annual maximum frozen depth almost always occurs in February and March; Maximum Frozen Soil Depth appear an abrupt decrease in 1986—1987s in Altay region; the deepest of annual Extreme and maximum of average and average of maximum depth appears in Qinghe;The Maximum Frozen Soil Depth and are negatively correlated with annual mean temperature and Extreme low temperature and the correlation coefficients are -0.508 and -0.293. |
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