| 刘彦平,蔡焕杰.基于标准化降水指数SPI的泾惠渠灌区干旱演变对冬小麦气候产量的影响[J].干旱地区农业研究,2015,33(3):267~272 |
| 基于标准化降水指数SPI的泾惠渠灌区干旱演变对冬小麦气候产量的影响 |
| Effect of drought evolution on climatic yield of winter wheat based on SPI in Jinghuiqu Irrigation District |
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| DOI：10.7606/j.issn.1000-7601.2015.03.42 |
| 中文关键词: 标准化降水指数（SPI） 冬小麦；气候产量；干旱化趋势；泾惠渠灌区 |
| 英文关键词:standardized precipitation index (SPI) winter wheat climate yield drought tendency Jinghuiqu Irrigation District |
| 基金项目:国家科技支撑计划课题（2011BAD29B01）；国家自然科学基金项目（51179162）；高等学校学科创新引智计划项目（B12007） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 为了研究干旱变化对于作物产量的影响机制，以泾惠渠灌区为例，选用标准化降水指数SPI作为干旱评判指标，采用Mann-Kendall趋势检验、最大熵谱分析等方法分析了灌区干旱的变化特征，以及干旱演变下冬小麦气候产量的变化规律。研究表明：(1) 灌区冬小麦实际产量呈显著增加趋势（Z=7.6482），气候产量呈不明显减少趋势(Z=-0.5686)；(2) 灌区总体干旱化趋势明显（通过了99%的显著性检验），这种趋势在春、夏、秋三季都达到了显著水平；(3) 干旱存在16 a的年代际周期波动，4～5 a的年际周期； (4) 播种前7—9月份和播种后的10、11月的干旱情况对于冬小麦气候产量的影响最大，是影响作物气候产量的关键期；(5) SPI3-9与冬小麦气候产量关系最密切，可以解释46.21%的产量变异；(6) 随着干旱的年代际周期变化，SPI3-9与冬小麦气候产量之间的相关系数从0.44上升至0.74，干旱对于冬小麦气候产量的影响有增强的趋势。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| In order to study the influence mechanism of drought change on crop yield, taking the Jinghuiqu Irrigation Distric(ID) as the case study, selected the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) as the drought evaluating index, using the methods of Mann-Kendall trend test and maximum entropy spectrum analysis to analyze the variation characteristics of drought in ID and the change rule of the climatic yield of winter wheat under drought evolution. The research showed that: (1) The real winter wheat yield in the ID has been showed a significantly rising trend (Z=7.6482), while the climatic yield was presented not obvious downward trend (Z=-0.5686); (2) The general drought trend in the ID was significant (through significant test at 99% level), this trend was reached remarkable level in three seasons as spring, summer and autumn; (3) The drought has existed periodic fluctuation of 16 years, the variation period was 4 to 5 years; (4) The drought situation in before planting as July to September and after planting as October to November had a great influence on climatic yield of winter wheat, these were the key periods for influencing crop climatic yield; (5) Climatic yield of winter wheat was closely related to SPI3-9, it can be explained 46.21% of the yield change; (6) With the change of the drought periodic cycle, r the correlation efficient of SPI3-9 with the climatic yield of winter wheat was increased from 0.44 to 0.74, the impact of drought on climatic yields was showed an increasing trend. |
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