| 孔坚文,王连喜,李琪,边超钧,江涤非.陕西省主要农业气象灾害分析及其对粮食产量的影响[J].干旱地区农业研究,2015,33(4):220~226 |
| 陕西省主要农业气象灾害分析及其对粮食产量的影响 |
| Analyses of main agro-meteorological disasters and their impacts on food production in Shaanxi Province |
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| DOI：10.7606/j.issn.1000-7601.2015.04.33 |
| 中文关键词: 气象灾害 粮食产量 受灾面积 陕西省 |
| 英文关键词:meteorological disasters food production covered disaster areas Shaanxi province |
| 基金项目:国家科技支撑计划“全球变化环境下作物产量的影响与适应监测评估技术”(2012BAH29B03) |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 根据1978—2011年陕西省自然灾害历史数据以及粮食单产资料，利用Mann-Kendall检验、Morlet小波分析等方法，对陕西干旱、洪涝、风雹、霜冻这几类主要农业气象灾害的受灾率进行了分析，在此基础之上采用灰色关联分析方法，将这四类主要农业气象灾害的受灾面积和粮食单产的关联度进行动态分析。结果表明：陕西干旱、洪涝、风雹、霜冻这四类灾害的关联度分别为0.7806、0.767、0.7731、0.7355；从受灾率的变化趋势来看，陕西旱灾受灾率在20世纪80年代变化幅度不大，从90年代初到2002年左右呈上升趋势，2002年之后呈下降趋势，霜冻受灾呈上升趋势，风雹略呈上升趋势，洪涝略呈下降趋势。M-K突变检验的结果表明，干旱受灾率的突变点为1984年和2011年，霜冻受灾率的突变点则出现在2003年，而陕西洪涝和风雹突变不明显。小波分析的结果表明，干旱受灾率存在着显著的准2～3 a和准2～4 a尺度周期，且这些周期的强度均随着时间变化；洪涝受灾率存在着显著的准3 a、准2～4 a和准2～6 a尺度周期；霜冻存在着显著的准2～4 a和准4～8 a尺度周期; 风雹存在着显著的准2～3 a、准3 a、准3～4 a和准2～6 a尺度周期。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| This paper studied the impacts of major agricultural meteorological disasters on grain production in Shaanxi Province. Based on the historical data of natural disasters and the grain yield data in Shaanxi province from 1978 to 2011, Mann-Kendall test and Morlet wavelet were used in this paper to analyze the rates of some major agricultural meteorological disasters in Shaanxi province, including droughts, floods, hail and frost. Then, we used grey relational analysis method to dynamically analyze the correlations between the affected areas and grain yield resulted from these four major agro-meteorological disasters. Results showed that the correlation efficiencies by drought, floods, hail and frost were 0.7806, 0.767, 0.7731, and 0.7355 respectively. From the disaster rate trends, we could see that the drought disaster rates in the 1980s changed slightly, which displayed an upward trend from the early 1990s to 2002, and a downward trend after 2002. The frost showed an upward trend, the hail was in a slight upward trend, and the floods possessed a slight downward trend. M-K alternation test results showed that the alternation in drought disaster took place between 1984 and 2011, the alternation point in frost disaster appeared in 2003, and floods and hail did not had any obvious alternations in 33 years in Shaanxi province. The results of wavelet analysis showed that the drought stricken rate had significant quasi 2～3 a and quasi 2～4 a scale cycles, and the intensities of these cycles were changed over time; The hail stricken rate had significant quasi 2～3 a, quasi 3 a, quasi 3～4 a and quasi 2～6 a scale cycles; The frost stricken rate had significant quasi 2～4 a and quasi 4～8 a scale cycles; The flood stricken rate had significant quasi 3 a, quasi 2～4 a and quasi 2～6 a scale cycles. |
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