| 燕玉超,张福平,刘筱,雷声剑.山东省近54年的气候变化特征及旱涝灾害响应分析[J].干旱地区农业研究,2015,33(5):245~252 |
| 山东省近54年的气候变化特征及旱涝灾害响应分析 |
| Research on climatic changes and the corresponding responses of drought and flood disasters in Shandong province in recent 54 a |
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| DOI：10.7606/j.issn.1000-7601.2015.05.42 |
| 中文关键词: 气候变化 年均温 年降水量 旱涝灾害 马尔可夫模型 |
| 英文关键词:climatic change mean annual temperature annual precipitation drought and flood markov model |
| 基金项目:陕西省“百人计划”项目；国家科技支撑项目（2012BAC08B07）；国家人力资源和社会保障部留学人员科技活动择优资助项目；陕西师范大学中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目（GK201101002） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 根据山东省33个气象站点1960—2013年的气温和降水资料，运用趋势线法、Mann—Kendall突变检验、Z指数法、马尔可夫模型等方法分析了山东省的气候时空变化及旱涝灾害响应特征。结果表明：(1) 山东省的气温总体处于上升趋势，春、夏、秋、冬季都有增温趋势，冬季最为明显。20世纪90年代以来升温显著，气温突变点是1991年，1991年前为冷期，后为暖期。在空间上，年均温呈现出从东向西递增的变化规律，气温倾向率空间变化相反。(2) 山东省的降水量总体呈现减少趋势。夏季降雨量减少幅度最大，春冬季有增湿现象。在空间上，年降水量呈现出从东南向西北递减的趋势，降水倾向率空间变化相反。(3) 气温突变后，极端旱涝事件减少，正常和偏旱事件增加，山东省的状况由以涝灾为主转变为以正常和旱灾为主。旱灾在空间上由东南向西北加重，涝灾相反。运用马尔可夫模型预测，近时期2014—2022年，山东省的旱涝状况以正常状态概率最大，在较远的未来年份预测中，正常状态概率也大于旱灾和涝灾状态概率。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| According to the temperature and precipitation data from 33 meteorological stations which lie in Shandong province during 1960—2013, using the trend line method, Mann-kendall mutation test, Z index method, and Markov model, etc, we analyzed the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of climate and the resulting responses from drought and flood disasters in Shandong province. It turned out that the overall temperatures in Shandong province presented a trend of increasing. Spring, summer, autumn and winter all showed a warming trend, and the most obvious season was winter. The temperature had been increased significantly since the 1990s, and the temperature mutation point was in 1991 when a cold period existed before 1991 and a warm period appeared after 1991. For the spatial variation characteristics, the mean annual temperature became increased gradually from east to west, while the temperature tendency rates showed opposite. The precipitation of Shandong province showed an overall trend of decreasing. The summer rainfall was mostly reduced, while spring and winter had a humid phenomenon. For the spatial variation characteristics, the annual precipitation was reduced gradually from southeast to northwest, and the precipitation tendency rates were opposite. After the temperature mutation point, the extreme drought and flood events became decreased, but the normal and slight drought events went increased. The situation in Shandong province was transformed from mainly flooding into mainly normal and dry conditions. For the spatial variation characteristics, the severity of drought varied gradually from southeast to northwest, and the flood did the opposite. Using Markov prediction model, in near period between 2014 and 2022, the probability of normal condition was the most. As for the distant future, the probability of normal condition was also greater than the probability of drought and flood conditions. |
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