| 赵新宇,刘 青,费良军.宁夏青铜峡灌区年退水量时间序列预测模型研究[J].干旱地区农业研究,2015,33(6):254~256 |
| 宁夏青铜峡灌区年退水量时间序列预测模型研究 |
| Research on time series prediction model of annual return water volume in Qingtongxia irrigation area |
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| DOI：10.7606/j.issn.1000-7601.2015.06.42 |
| 中文关键词: 退水量 预测 时间序列 青铜峡灌区 |
| 英文关键词:return water volume prediction time series Qingtongxia irrigation area |
| 基金项目:江西省自然科学基金项目(2010GZC0184)；江西重点科技成果转化项目(20142BBI90020) |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 针对宁夏青铜峡灌区年退水量预测问题，采用时间序列方法分析了灌区年退水量特性，建立了预测模型，结果发现青铜峡灌区年退水量在年际间相互关联，其时间序列是一个非白噪声非平稳时间序列，一阶差分序列是一个非白噪声平稳序列，建立了ARIMA年退水量时间序列模型，模型模拟的平均相对误差为5.66%，预测的相对误差在5%以内，精度较高，可以用于灌区退水量的预测。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| In order to address the prediction problem of return water in Qingtongxia irrigation area, this paper analyzed the properties of annual return water volume and built a prediction model by time series method. The research results showed that the return water volume exhibited a correlation pattern between years. Its time series was a non-white noise and non-stationary series, and its first-order differential sequence was a non-white noise and stationary series. As a result, a time series prediction model of annual return water volume had been established with an average relative simulation error of 5.66% and a relative prediction error up to 5%, demonstrating the high simulation and prediction accuracy of this model. Thereby, it could be used for the prediction of annual return water in irrigation area. |
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