| 许宝泉,梁长利,舒 庆,施为群,孙国钧.基于GIS技术的祖历河流域粮食产量及粮食安全分析[J].干旱地区农业研究,2015,33(6):265~269 |
| 基于GIS技术的祖历河流域粮食产量及粮食安全分析 |
| Analysis of grain production and food security based on GIS in Zuli river basin, Gansu Province, China |
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| DOI：10.7606/j.issn.1000-7601.2015.06.44 |
| 中文关键词: 粮食产量 粮食安全 GIS 黄土高原 祖厉河流域 |
| 英文关键词:grain yield food security GIS Loess Plateau Zuli river basin |
| 基金项目:“973”预研项目“草地与农牧交错带生态系统生产力形成机制”(G2000028603) |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 借助3S（RS、GIS、GPS）技术，在地处干旱、半干旱黄土高原、水资源是土地生产力限制因子的祖历河流域，建立了流域粮食单产10年平均值的产量估算限制因子回归模型。通过将该模型与GIS耦合，模拟了全流域粮食产量的空间分布，以乡镇为离散单位，统计分析了流域粮食总产量和人均粮食产量及其空间分布，分析了流域粮食供需现状以及粮食安全问题。结果表明：祖厉河流域主要以雨养农业为主（旱地面积占总耕地的92.74%），由于水资源短缺，旱地粮食产量普遍偏低，单产在630.1～1 231.5 kg·hm-2之间，仅有水浇地单产的1/4～1/5，而且空间分布不均匀；灌区粮食产量较高，可达3 750～5 250 kg·hm-2；全流域粮食总产量4.17×108 t，人均粮食产量481.94 kg·人-1，粮食产量能够满足流域人口需要。虽然人均粮食产量小于395 kg·人-1的乡镇有16个，占全流域的25.4%，但可以通过流域内部粮食调配，实现供需平衡。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| In the present study, a limiting factor regression model of the grain production was established based on the characteristics of water resource that are the key limiting factors for the cropping system in Zuli river basin with the aid of 3S (RS, GIS, GPS) technology. The spatial distribution of grain production throughout the basin was simulated by the model coupling with GIS. According to the statistical analysis of the total grain output and per capita grain yield from each villages and towns which were considered as discrete units, the present situation of grain demand and supply and food security was also discussed. The results showed that because dry farmland accounted for 92.74% of the total cropland area, the rainfed agriculture was the mainly type of farms in Zuli river basin, and the grain yield per unit area in dry farmland was only about 630.1～1 231.5 kg·hm-2, which was only about 1/4～1/5 of that in irrigated cropland (about 3 750～5 250 kg·hm-2). Furthermore, the grain yield was uneven in spatial distribution. And our research also indicated that total grain output of the whole basin was about 4.17×108 tons, and the grain yield per capita was 481.94 kg, implying that the total grain output of the whole basin could satisfy the consumption need of population under the existing condition. Although there were 16 villages and towns, accounting for 25.4% of those in the whole basin, where grain yield per capita was less than 395 kg, through internal grain allocation inside the basin, the balance of food supply and demand in basin could be achieved. |
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