| 张延,任小川,赵英,曹寒,冯浩.未来气候变化对关中地区冬小麦耗水和产量的影响模拟[J].干旱地区农业研究,2016,34(1):220~228 |
| 未来气候变化对关中地区冬小麦耗水和产量的影响模拟 |
| Impact and simulation of climate change on water consumption and yield of winter-wheat in Guanzhong Region |
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| DOI：10.7606/j.issn.1000-7601.2016.01.34 |
| 中文关键词: 未来气候变化 冬小麦 耗水量 产量 DSSAT模型 |
| 英文关键词:climate change winter wheat water consumption yield DSSAT model |
| 基金项目:国家863计划项目（2013AA102904）；高等学校学科创新引智计划资助(B12007) |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 采用IPCC第四次评估报告给出的SRA1B、SRA2和SRB1 3种气体排放情景，选用HadCM3、IPCM4、MPEH5、NCCCSM 4种大气环流模式，利用随机天气发生器LARS-WG生成逐日气象资料，结合DSSAT模型，模拟历史(1961—2010年)和未来(2011—2030、2046—2065、2080—2090年)气候变化下灌溉与不灌溉条件下冬小麦生育期、耗水量及产量的变化情况。模拟结果显示：未来气候变化情景下，冬小麦生育期内平均气温上升，降雨量下降，2011—2030、2046—2065、2080—2090年3个时间段内平均气温分别上升0.93℃、1.76℃、2.87℃，降雨量分别下降27.40、39.37、42.50 mm。灌溉和不灌溉条件下冬小麦生育期内耗水量和产量较现状均下降，其中灌溉条件下分别减少5.16%和8.63%，不灌溉条件下减少9.58%和13.76%。无论何种气候变化情景，灌溉和不灌溉方式下冬小麦生育期均缩短且与生育期内的平均气温呈现较好的负相关性，生育期内降水量与耗水量、降水量与产量、耗水量与产量均具有较好的正相关性。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Study the effects of climate change on water consumption and yield of winter wheat is significant for mitigating the negative impact of climate change, ensuring food security and the sustainable utilization of water resources. This paper applied the LARS-WG weather generator to simulate synthetic weather data under the SRA1B, SRA2, SRB1 emission scenarios from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC) using the results of General Circulation Model HadCM3、IPCM4、MPEH5 and NCCCSM. Furthermore, DSSAT model was combined to simulate the change of winter wheat growth period、yield and water consumption under irrigation and non-irrigation conditions at the history(1961—2010) and future (2011—2030、2046—2065、2080—2090) climate change scenarios. Simulation results showed that, the average temperature will increase, the precipitation will decrease during the growth season under climate change scenarios in the future. Average temperature will increase by 0.93℃, 1.76℃ and 2.87℃, and rainfall will drop by 27.40 mm, 39.37 mm and 42.50 mm respectively in three periods(2011—2030, 2046—2065, 2080—2090). Water consumption and yield will decrease in both irrigation and non-irrigation conditions under different climate scenarios (irrigation condition will reduce by 5.16% and 8.63%, while non-irrigation condition will reduce by 9.58% and 13.76%). Regardless of climate change scenarios, winter wheat growth period will be shortened under both irrigation and non-irrigation conditions and it correlates negatively with average temperature, whereas positive correlation existed between precipitation and water consumption, rainfall and yield, and water consumption and yield. |
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