| 薛昌颖,胡程达.基于ORYZA2000模型的华北地区旱稻干旱风险评估[J].干旱地区农业研究,2016,34(3):179~185 |
| 基于ORYZA2000模型的华北地区旱稻干旱风险评估 |
| Risk assessment of drought on upland rice in North China based on ORYZA2000 model |
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| DOI：10.7606/j.issn.1000-7601.2016.03.29 |
| 中文关键词: 旱稻 ORYZA2000模型 干旱强度 产量灾损 风险评估 华北地区 |
| 英文关键词:upland rice ORYZA2000 model drought intensity yield loss risk assessment North China region |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(41005058) |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 针对华北地区旱稻产量年际不稳定的问题，利用作物生长模拟技术与数理统计相结合的方法，对华北地区气候背景下旱稻生长季内干旱风险进行了定量评估。以模型模拟的雨养条件下实际蒸散量相对于潜在条件下的蒸散量（即需水量）的亏缺率(即水分亏缺指数)，以雨养条件下产量相对于潜在产量的损失率（即灾损指数）作为产量灾损强度评价指标，从受旱程度以及产量损失两个角度构建干旱风险评估模型，进行干旱风险评估。结果表明，华北地区旱稻全生育期水分亏缺指数在0.35～0.45之间，其中出苗～穗分化阶段指数值在各生育阶段中最高。干旱灾损指数变化在0.24～0.50之间，其中河北的西北部、山东北部及河南的南部较高。就干旱强度风险及灾损风险而言，空间分布趋势基本一致，风险指数低的地区主要分布在河北北部、山东南部等地区，河北中南部、河南大部等地风险指数较高；就综合风险指数而言，高值区主要分布在河南的西部和南部、山东北部以及河北中部的部分地区，低值区主要分布在北京、天津、河北北部、山东大部以及河南北部的大部分地区。总体上看，华北大部地区旱稻干旱综合风险较低，但在农业生产实际中仍不能忽视高风险区的干旱应对及防御。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Pointed at the problem of yield instabiliy of aerobic rice, using the method combined crop growth similation technology with the mathematical statistics, carried out the quantity evaluation for the drought risk of the aerobic rice in growing season under the climate background of North China. Taking the deficit ratio related actual rainfed evaptranspiration to the potential evaptranspiratio, as crop water deficit index (CWDI) and the loss rate related the rainfed yield to the potential yield as the disaster loss index for the evaluation index of yield disaster loss, established the drought risk evaluation model from two angles as the extent of drought and yield loss, and carried out the drought risk evaluation. The results showed that: The CWDI for whole growing period of aerobic rice in North China Region was between 0.35 and 0.45. In different growth stages, it was highest at the emergence to ear differentiation stage. The drought disaster loss index was change between 0.24 to 0.50. it was higher in Northwest of Hebei, North of Shandong and South of Henan. For the drought intensity risk and disaster loss risk, the space distribution trend was basic identical. The low risk index areas were major distribued in North of Hebei and South of Shandong and other regions. But the risk index was rather high in Mid-south of Hebei, most of Henan and so on. For the comprehensive risk index, the high value areas major distributed in West and South of Henan, North of Shandong and part areas of the Mid of Hebei, and low value areas major distributed in Beijing, Tianjin, North of Hebei, most of Shandong and most areas of North Henan. From overall look, the comprehensive drought risk of aerobic rice was lower in most areas of North China. However, in the agricultural practice it could not be ignored for the response and defense to drought in high risk areas. |
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