| 孙雪萍,苏筠.降水约束条件下的粮食生产适应度评价——以内蒙古乌兰察布市为例[J].干旱地区农业研究,2016,34(3):234~239 |
| 降水约束条件下的粮食生产适应度评价——以内蒙古乌兰察布市为例 |
| Evaluation of adaptation degree for food production under restricted condition of precipitation ——A case study in Ulanqab City of Inner Mongolia |
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| DOI：10.7606/j.issn.1000-7601.2016.03.37 |
| 中文关键词: 降水波动性；粮食生产稳定性；适应度 气候暖干旱化 |
| 英文关键词:precipitation fluctuation stability of food production adaptation degree climate warming and drying |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金资助项目(41171402) |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 基于年际间降水波动性与粮食生产稳定性之间的关系，提出了粮食生产适应度评价的概念模型，并建立评价标准，将粮食生产适应度分为1～4级。以位于北方干旱半干旱雨养农业区的内蒙古乌兰察布市为例，选取乌兰察布市1959—2009年逐年粮食产量、播种面积数据，逐年逐日气温、降水量数据，结合数学统计分析揭示了区域粮食生产适应水平的变化趋势。气象数据统计分析结果显示，该区域降水在波动中有小幅降低，近30年年平均降水量比20世纪60年代减少约30 mm；同期气温升高约3.1℃，区域整体暖干旱化趋势明显。粮食生产状况统计结果显示：这一时段内粮食单产上升趋势明显、气象产量波动较大。基于适应度评价模型，该区粮食生产适应水平大致经历了由4级降至1级、至1995年后又升至3级的高→低→高的变化过程。在区域气候条件变化和技术经济进步的情况下，人们通过不断调整适应措施来应对变化，其间，适应水平呈现高低不同的变化。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Based on the relationship between fluctuation of interannual precipitation and stability of food production, put forward the conceptual model for adaptability evaluation of the food production and established the evaluation standard. The adaptation degree of food production can be divided into 1 to 4 levels. A case study of Ulanqab City in Inner Mongolia, located in rain feed farming areas and arid and semi-arid of Northern China, selected the grain production, sowed areas, daily temperature and precipitation data from 1959 to 2009 in Ulanqab City year by year, combined with the mathematic statistic analysis, has revealed the change trend of the adaptation level of regional food production. The meteorological statistical analysis results showed that: The precipitation in this region had a slight decrease in the fluctuation. In recent 30 years, the yearly mean precipitation was less than 1960 s about 30 mm, the temperature over the same period has increased about 3.1℃, and the reginal trend of warm and dry on the whole was obvious. The statistical results of grain production showed that: The increasing trend of grain yield was obvious in this period and the fluctuation of meteorological yield was rather big. Based on the adaptation evaluation model, the adaptation level of grain production in this region has roughly experienced the change procedure from high to low to high as from 4 grade decreased to 1grade and after 1995 rised to 3grade again. With the change of regional climate condition and technical economic progress, the people taken constantly adjusting measures to cope with change, between which, the adaptation level has shown the different change in the levels with high and low. |
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