李亚杰,石强,李德明,吕汰,何建强,王鹏,张俊莲,白江平,王蒂.甘肃旱区马铃薯晚疫病始发期的预测研究[J].干旱地区农业研究,2016,34(5):114~119
甘肃旱区马铃薯晚疫病始发期的预测研究
Prediction of late blight outbreak in arid regions of Gansu Province
  
DOI：10.7606/j.issn.1000-7601.2016.05.18
中文关键词:  马铃薯晚疫病始发期  预测预报  甘肃省
英文关键词:potato late blight originating period  prediction  Gansu Province
基金项目:国家科技支撑计划(2012BAD06B03)；甘肃省重大专项项目(1102NKDA025)；国家现代农业产业技术体系建设专项资金(CARS-10)〖
作者单位
李亚杰 甘肃省作物遗传改良与种质创新重点实验室-甘肃省干旱生境作物学重点实验室， 甘肃 兰州 730070； 定西市农业科学研究院， 甘肃 定西 743000 
石强 甘肃省作物遗传改良与种质创新重点实验室-甘肃省干旱生境作物学重点实验室， 甘肃 兰州 730070 
李德明 定西市农业科学研究院， 甘肃 定西 743000 
吕汰 天水市农业科学研究院， 甘肃 天水 741000 
何建强 旱区农业水土工程教育部重点实验室，西北农林科技大学水利与建筑工程学院， 陕西 杨凌 712100 
王鹏 天水市农业科学研究院， 甘肃 天水 741000 
张俊莲 甘肃省作物遗传改良与种质创新重点实验室-甘肃省干旱生境作物学重点实验室， 甘肃 兰州 730070 
白江平 甘肃省作物遗传改良与种质创新重点实验室-甘肃省干旱生境作物学重点实验室， 甘肃 兰州 730070 
王蒂 甘肃省作物遗传改良与种质创新重点实验室-甘肃省干旱生境作物学重点实验室， 甘肃 兰州 730070 
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中文摘要:
      本研究利用2012—2013年甘肃省马铃薯主栽区的气象资料，结合甘肃马铃薯晚疫病发生的实情，筛选出显著影响晚疫病发生的相关气象因子，建立了甘肃干旱山区，二阴区和川塬区的马铃薯晚疫病始发期预报方程，但川塬区晚疫病始发期预报模型还需进一步的设计与优化。方程模拟结果：温度是二阴区内晚疫病始发的关键因素；降水量主要影响干旱山区马铃薯的晚疫病发生；在同一地区内，川塬区和二阴区晚疫病始发期早于干旱山区，这与干旱山区空气流动性相对强于川塬区和二阴区有关。通过对甘肃干旱山区，二阴区与川塬区马铃薯晚疫病始发期预报方程进行验证，得知预报方程对干旱山区和二阴区晚疫病始发期的预测准确率较高，预测始发期区间较小，误差小，在甘肃晚疫病预警和防治工作中具有较强的指导作用。
英文摘要:
      To identify the meteorological factors that induce the outbreak of late blight, meteorological data of potato main planting area during 2012—2013 were analyzed, as well as the observed potato late blight outbreak data in Gansu Province. Furthermore, the late blight outbreak predictive equation was constructed for the arid mountainous area including high-humid mountain and plain areas, nevertheless the late blight forecast models for the plain regions remained to be further developed and optimized. The equation indicated that the temperature was the key factor for late blight outbreak in the high-humid mountain area. Rainfall influenced the incidence of late blight in arid mountainous area. In the same area, late blight originating period occurred earlier in plain regions and high-humid mountain area than that happened in the arid mountainous area, which might be due to the relatively strong mountain air flow in arid mountainous area. According to the validation data for the equation at different sites around arid mountainous, plain and high-humid mountain areas, forecast equation on late blight in arid mountainous area and high-humid mountain area showed higher forecast accuracy than plain area, and had a strong practical role in the prediction and prevention of late blight.
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