| 张京京,魏晓妹,降亚楠.渠井结合灌区地下水位动态对变化环境的响应及敏感性分析[J].干旱地区农业研究,2016,34(5):215~221 |
| 渠井结合灌区地下水位动态对变化环境的响应及敏感性分析 |
| Groundwater dynamic response and sensitivity analysis to the changing environment in the canal-well combined irrigation area |
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| DOI：10.7606/j.issn.1000-7601.2016.05.33 |
| 中文关键词: 泾惠渠灌区 地下水位 环境变化 响应 通径分析 |
| 英文关键词:jinghui canal irrigation area groundwater level environmental change response path analysis |
| 基金项目:水利部公益性行业科研专项(201301016)；陕西省水利科技计划项目资助(2011-07)；国家科技支撑计划项目(2012BAD08B01) |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 以陕西省泾惠渠灌区为研究区，运用线性趋势分析法及Spearman秩次相关检验法分析了灌区地下水系统外部环境因子的变化特征，建立了基于BP神经网络的灌区地下水位动态对变化环境的响应模型，并应用通径分析方法，进行了灌区地下水位动态的敏感性分析。结果表明：近30多年来，灌区降水量呈显著减少趋势，其线性倾斜率为2.09 mm·a-1，蒸发量减少趋势不明显，其线性倾斜率为0.04 mm·a-1；地表水灌溉引水量呈减小趋势，渠首农灌引水量20世纪90年代之前减少了41.6%；地下水开采量减少了39.7%，渠井用水比例减小了33.9%；地下水位埋深不断增大，近31 a来地下水位累计下降了11.88 m；地下水位埋深模拟的平均相对误差为4.52%，检验的平均相对误差为2.23%，误差均在可接受范围之内；敏感性变化环境因子最大为渠井用水比例，最小为降水量。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| This study analyzed variations of characteristics of external environment factors for groundwater system of Jinghui canal irrigation area using the Linear trend analysis and Spearman ranking test. A response model of groundwater dynamic affected by external environment was established based on the BP artificial neural network. The sensitivity of the groundwater dynamic of the irrigation area was analyzed by path analysis. The results showed that precipitation was declined significantly, with a linear slope rate of 2.09 mm·a-1. Evaporation was raised by 0.04 mm·a-1, which was not obvious in over 30 years. Surface irrigation became decreased. Irrigation intake water from canal head went decreased by 41.6% from that in 1990s. Groundwater exploitation and water ratio of channel vs. well were decreased by 39.7% and 33.9%, respectively. Groundwater depth became increased gradually, and groundwater level cumulative was declined by 11.88m in recent 31 years. The simulation and test average relative errors were 4.52% and 2.23%, reaching acceptable levels. The most sensitive environment factor was water ratio of channel vs. well, and the least was precipitation. |
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