| 何斌,王全九,吴迪,苏李君,单鱼洋.基于主成分分析和层次分析法相结合的陕西省农业干旱风险评估[J].干旱地区农业研究,2017,35(1):219~227 |
| 基于主成分分析和层次分析法相结合的陕西省农业干旱风险评估 |
| Agricultural drought risk assessment in Shaanxi province using principal component analysis and AHP |
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| DOI：10.7606/j.issn.1000-7601.2017.01.33 |
| 中文关键词: 农业干旱 风险评估 主成分分析 层次分析法 陕西省 |
| 英文关键词:agricultural drought risk assessment principal component analysis analytic hierarchy process(AHP) Shaanxi province |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金（51239009；51409212；51409213）；陕西省水利科技计划项目“陕西省农业干旱风险评估与区划研究”（2014slkj-1010） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 农业干旱灾害发生机理复杂，评价指标众多，为确定合理的干旱风险评价指标，以陕西省为研究对象，提出基于主成分分析和层次分析法(AHP)相结合的农业干旱风险评价指标体系和评估方法。运用主成分分析，结合陕西省干旱成因及特点，基于风险四要素（危险性、暴露性、脆弱性和抗旱能力）筛选并构建了农业干旱风险评价指标体系，采用AHP评估了陕西省农业干旱风险。结果表明，在考虑地区抗旱能力情况下，陕西省农业干旱风险从北向南，从东向西均呈现出递减趋势，北部榆林地区和东部渭南、商洛地区，农业干旱风险较高。通过主成分分析和AHP相结合的评价体系，可以合理选取评价指标，缩减指标个数；准确评估干旱风险，指出风险要素来源，为抗旱部门有效识别致灾因子，提出相应的抗旱减灾方法。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Agricultural drought disaster mechanism is complex, and its evaluation index is numerous. With the aim of developing reasonable evaluation index and evaluation of drought risk, this study took Shaanxi province as the research object, based on principal component analysis and AHP with the combination of agricultural drought risk assessment index system and evaluation method. The results showed that under the condition of considering regional drought resistance ability, drought risk showed a decreasing trend from north to south and from east to west of Shaanxi. For Yulin region of northern and eastern Weinan, Shangluo prefecture, agricultural drought risk is higher. By combining principal component analysis and AHP evaluation system, we can select evaluation index, reduce index number, and accurately assess the drought risk. |
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