| 李树岩,余卫东.河南省不同生态区CERES-Maize模型参数确定及精度验证[J].干旱地区农业研究,2017,35(2):1~8 |
| 河南省不同生态区CERES-Maize模型参数确定及精度验证 |
| Applicability analysis of CERES-Maize model in different agro-ecological zone of Henan |
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| DOI：10.7606/j.issn.1000-7601.2017.02.01 |
| 中文关键词: CERES-Maize 作物模型 调参验证 夏玉米 |
| 英文关键词:CERES-Maize crop model calibration and validation summer maize |
| 基金项目:中国气象局气候变化专项(CCSF201408) |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 本研究将河南夏玉米主产区划分为4个生态区，利用全省18个站近十余年农气观测资料对CERES-Maize模型进行参数调试和验证，其中2003—2005年为模型调参年份，2006—2010年为模型验证年份。根据各生态区的多站点调参验证的平均状态，获得4套模型区域品种参数。由各生态区夏玉米品种遗传参数可知，I区全生育期所需积温最多，其次是Ⅲ区和Ⅳ区；单穗潜在最大籽粒数Ⅰ区最高，Ⅲ区次之，Ⅳ区最低；灌浆速率参数Ⅲ区略小，其他地区较相近。各生态区生物量和产量的模拟和验证结果表明，归一化均方根误差NRMSE均小于20%，模型对各生态区生物量和产量模拟能力较强。但各生态区模拟效果有一定差异，其中生物量调试结果中观测值与模拟值均值较接近，验证结果中实测值较模拟值普遍偏大，尤其是Ⅰ区和Ⅱ区。在产量验证中，Ⅰ区和Ⅱ区模拟值略低于观测值，而Ⅲ区和Ⅳ区模拟值略高于观测值。Ⅰ-Ⅲ区生物量和产量的观测值和模拟值相关系数r均通过显著检验，模型对于这些地区生物量及产量增减的变化趋势模拟较好。对生物量和叶面积指数的动态模拟及验证结果表明，地上部总生物量动态增长的拟合效果较好。叶面积指数观测值略滞后于模拟值，但总体趋势吻合度较好。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| The main production region of summer maize in Henan Province was divided into four agro-ecological zones. The genetic parameters of representative maize varieties in each zone were determined to calibrate and validate CERES-Maize model by using data from 18 agro-meteorological stations in recently ten years. The data from 2003 to 2005 were used for calibration and from 2006 to 2010 for validation. According to the mean values of calibration and validation in different zones, four sets of zonal variety parameters for modeling were gotten. From the genetic parameters of maize in different zones, it was found that the accumulated temperature in zone I was the largest, followed by zone Ⅲ and Ⅳ; the potential maximum number of kernels per ear was the largest in zone I, followed by zone Ⅲ, and it was the lowest in zone Ⅳ; the kernel filling rate was relatively low in zone Ⅲ, and it was similar in other zones. The calibration and validation results of biomass and yield in different zones showed that the normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) was lower than 20%. The ability of CERES-Maize model was strong in simulating biomass and yield in different zones, but there were some spatial differences in simulating effect. The observed value was close to the simulated value in calibration period of biomass, but it was generally greater than the simulated value in validation period, especially for zone I and Ⅱ. In validation period of yield, the simulated value was lower than the observed value in zone I and Ⅱ，but greater in zone Ⅲ and Ⅳ. The correlation coefficients between observed value and simulated value of biomass and yield in zone Ⅰ to Ⅲ wholly passed the significance test, so the simulating effect of biomass and yield was good in these zones. According to the calibration and validation results of biomass and leaf area index, it was found that the simulating effect of above-ground biomass was good. The observed value of leaf area index slightly lagged behind the simulated value, but their overall trend coincided quite well. |
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