| 雷亚君,张永福,张敏惠,梁雪梅,邵新娟.新疆水资源生态足迹核算与预测[J].干旱地区农业研究,2017,35(5):142~150 |
| 新疆水资源生态足迹核算与预测 |
| Calculation and prediction of water resource ecological footprint in Xinjiang |
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| DOI：10.7606/j.issn.1000-7601.2017.05.21 |
| 中文关键词: 生态足迹 水资源负载指数 水资源生态赤字 GM(1,1)模型 |
| 英文关键词:ecological footprint load index of water resources water resources ecological deficit GM(1,1) model |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 根据水资源生态足迹的基本原理和计算模型，引入水资源负载指数，对新疆2005—2014年水资源生态足迹、水资源生态承载力进行计算，并运用灰色预测模型GM(1,1)对2015—2025年的生态赤字/盈余趋势进行预测。结果表明：① 新疆历年水资源生态足迹大于水资源承载力，处于生态赤字状态，从2005年的-7.83×107 hm2 下降至2013年的-9.06×107 hm2 ，水资源开发率很低；② 2005—2014年新疆水资源生态足迹和承载力均呈上升趋势，人均生态足迹和人均承载力呈上下波动状态，生产用水生态足迹在三个水资源账户中比例最大，远远超出其它两部分，占总水资源足迹的95.86%；③ 水资源负载指数总体呈上升趋势，表明水资源的利用程度逐渐加强，2005—2012年负载指数在2～5之间，表明新疆水资源利用程度中等；2013—2014年负载指数在5～10之间，表明新疆水资源利用程度高，开发条件困难；④ 新疆水资源存在分布不均匀的状态，南疆、北疆、东疆差异较大，南疆、北疆水资源生态足迹、水资源承载力均大于东疆，而南、北疆万元GDP水资源生态足迹则小于东疆；⑤ 对2015—2025年水资源进行预测，新疆水资源一直处于生态赤字状态，而且水资源生态赤字呈逐年减小的趋势，水资源生态赤字越来越严重，今后的形势越来越严峻，在利用中提高节水意识。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| According to the basic principle and calculation model of water resources ecological footprint, the water resources load index is introduced to calculate the ecological footprint of water resources and the ecological carrying capacity of water resources in Xinjiang from 2005 to 2014, and the gray forecasting model GM (1,1) is used to predict the ecological deficit/surplus trends from 2015 to 2025. The results show that: ① The ecological footprint of water resources in Xinjiang is larger than the ecological capacity of water resources, and it is in ecological deficit, which decreases from -7.83×107 hm2 in 2005 to -9.06×107 hm2 in 2013, and the development rate of water resources is low; ② The ecological footprint and carrying capacity of water resources in Xinjiang increased from 2005 to 2014, the per capita ecological footprint and the per capita carrying capacity fluctuated, and the ecological footprint of the production water was the largest among the three water resources account, far exceeding the other two parts, accounted for 95.86% of the total water footprint; ③ The water resources load index showed an upward trend, indicating that the utilization of water resources was gradually strengthened. The load index was between 2～5 from 2004 to 2012, indicated moderate degree of utilization of water resources in Xinjiang; and the load index was between 5～10,the results show that Xinjiang's water resources utilization is high and the development conditions are difficult; ④ The distribution of water resources in Xinjiang is not uniform. The distribution of water resources in Southern Xinjiang, Northern Xinjiang and Eastern Xinjiang is quite different. The water footprint and ecological carrying capacity of Southern and Northern Xinjiang are greater than that of Eastern Xinjiang, and the Milion Yuan GDP water ecological footprint of Southern and Northern Xinjiang are less than that of Eastern Xinjiang; ⑤ the water resources ecological deficit from 2015 to 2025 had been predicted, it showed that Xinjiang's water resources has been in the state of ecological deficit, which led to a decrease of water resources year by year. and the situation is worse which will be even severe in the future, so the use of water conservation awareness must be enhanced. |
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