| 聂志刚,任新庄,李广,雒翠萍,马维伟,刘小鹅.基于APSIM的甘肃春小麦干旱致灾风险评价[J].干旱地区农业研究,2018,36(6):194~200 |
| 基于APSIM的甘肃春小麦干旱致灾风险评价 |
| Assessment of drought risk on spring wheat in Gansu using APSIM |
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| DOI：10.7606/j.issn.1000-7601.2018.06.29 |
| 中文关键词: 春小麦 APSIM 干旱 模拟 致灾风险 |
| 英文关键词:spring wheat APSIM drought simulation hazard risk |
| 基金项目:甘肃农业大学科技创新基金-学科建设专项基金项目（GAU-XKJS-2018-254）；国家自然科学基金（31660348，31560378，31560343）；甘肃农业大学青年导师基金资助项目（GAU-QNDS-201701） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 为提高干旱环境下甘肃春小麦生产应对旱情的能力，利用APSIM（agricultural production system simulator）平台，模拟1971-2012年甘肃省4大春小麦主产区（河西内陆河灌溉春小麦种植区、陇中黄土高原春小麦种植区、洮岷高寒冬春小麦混种区、陇西黄土高原冬春小麦兼种区）的小麦生长过程，构建基于水分胁迫的小麦干旱致灾强度指数模型，对甘肃省春小麦干旱致灾强度和风险时空分布进行了定量评价和分析。结果表明：甘肃春小麦干旱致灾强度指数总体呈现北高南低的趋势，由于河西春小麦生产具备灌溉条件，陇中、陇西黄土高原春麦种植地区为干旱致灾强度较高且实际影响最大的地区，受干旱影响最小的是洮岷高寒春麦区。在小麦生长不同阶段，各主产区对旱情的敏感程度不同，轻度致灾强度（≥0.20）情况下，洮岷高寒春麦区的开花期和灌浆期、陇西冬春麦兼种区的灌浆期以及陇中干旱春麦区的开花期致灾概率较大，均大于0.6；中度致灾强度（≥0.40）情况下，陇西冬春麦兼种区致灾概率最大出现在开花期，为0.46。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| In order to improve the ability of spring wheat production under drought in Gansu, the growth process of spring wheat was simulated for the major wheat production regions (spring wheat planting area in Hexi with irrigation, spring wheat planting area in the Loess Plateau of central Gansu, winter and spring wheat mixed planting area in high and cold region in Taomin, winter and spring wheat simultaneous planting area in the Loess Plateau of west-central Gansu) in Gansu from 1971 to 2012 using APSIM (agricultural production system simulator). Intensity index model of drought disaster of wheat was constructed based on water stress and temporal and spatial distribution of drought intensity and risk on spring wheat production in Gansu. The results showed that intensity index of drought disaster on spring wheat in Gansu showed a trend of high in northern and low in southern parts. The high intensity of drought disaster and the greatest impacted production region on spring wheat in Gansu was on the Loess Plateau of central Gansu and central western Gansu as the spring wheat production in Hexi area had irrigation system. The least affected areas by drought was alpine area of spring wheat in Taomin.The sensitivity of the major spring wheat producing areas to drought varied at different growth stages of wheat. When drought hazard index was greater than 0.40, the maximum of moderate drought disaster probability was 0.46 at the flowering stage in winter and spring wheat simultaneous planting area on the Loess Plateau of central western Gansu. During the flowering stage in arid planting area of spring wheat in central Gansu and in alpine planting area of spring wheat in Taomin, and during grain filling stage in facultative planting area of winter and spring wheat in Longxi and alpine planting area of spring wheat in Taomin, the drought disaster probability was greater than 0.6 in the drought hazard index ≥0.20 cases. |
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