| 裴文涛,陈栋栋,薛文辉,张国斌.近55年来河西地区干旱时空演变特征及其与ENSO事件的关系[J].干旱地区农业研究,2019,37(1):250~258 |
| 近55年来河西地区干旱时空演变特征及其与ENSO事件的关系 |
| The temporal and spatial variation characteristics of drought and its relationship with ENSO events in Hexi region in last 55 years |
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| DOI：10.7606/j.issn.1000-7601.2019.01.35 |
| 中文关键词: 干旱 SPEI指数 时空特征 ENSO事件 河西地区 |
| 英文关键词:drought SPEI-index temporal and spatial variation characteristics ENSO events Hexi region |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(41061022,41561046) |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 根据河西地区14个气象站点1961-2015年的逐月气象观测资料，基于SPEI指数采用Mann-Kendall趋势检验法、反距离加权插值(IDW)等方法分析了近55年来河西地区年代际、四季干旱及空间变化特征，并探讨了ENSO 事件与该区干旱的关系。结果表明：在年代际变化上，自20世纪90年代以来河西地区干旱次数增多、干旱程度加重。季节时间变化上，河西地区春、夏、秋季均呈干旱化趋势，春季干旱化趋势最为突出，夏季次之，冬季略呈变湿趋势。空间变化上，整个河西地区春季均呈干旱化趋势，而且大部分地区的春旱趋势极为显著，其中春旱趋势最显著的地方是金塔；冬季整个研究区趋于湿润化。各季节干旱高频区分别集中在：春季在金塔、民勤地区，夏季在河西西北部，秋季在河西中东部及西部的安西—玉门一线，冬季在101°E以西的河西地区。河西地区秋季SPEI与SSTA指数的相关性最为显著，春季次之，夏季最弱。ENSO事件发生强度与河西地区SPEI影响因子的多项式拟合关系表明，ENSO事件强度对温度的影响高于降水；其中在ENSO暖事件(厄尔尼诺事件)发生年份，气温有明显的上升趋势；在ENSO冷事件(拉尼娜事件)发生年份，少数年份降水有所增加，对气温的影响较弱。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Combining SPEI index and Mann-Kendall trend test with inverse distance weighted, we analyzed the temporal and spatial characteristics change of drought and its relation with ENSO events in Hexi region based on monthly meteorological data of 14 meteorological stations from 1961 to 2015. We found that the drought frequency was increasing and aggravating since the 1990s in Hexi region. On seasonal changes, the drought happened more often in spring, summer, and autumn but it was wet in winter. Spring drought is more severe. Spatially, the whole Hexi region had a drought trend in spring that the tendency of drought was very significant in most of regions and the worst drought location was Jinta. The study area overall had a humid winter. The high frequency of drought occurred in Jinta and Minqin in spring, the northwestern Hexi in summer, and central and eastern Hexi, Anxi to Yumen, and western part of the study area in autumn. In winter, it happened in west of 101°E, the Hexi region. The SPEI of autumn had the most significant correlation with SSTA index, followed by that of spring while summer had the least correlation. The fitting relationship between the intensity of ENSO events and SPEI influence factors showed that the intensity of ENSO event had more influence on temperature than precipitation. In the years of the ENSO warm events (El Nio), temperature had a significant upward trend. The ENSO cold events (La Nio) had less effect on temperature but slightly increased precipitation in few years. |
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