容锦盟,周丹,罗静,朱海玲,郭广.4种干旱指标在华北地区气象干旱监测中的适用性分析[J].干旱地区农业研究,2019,37(1):259~267
4种干旱指标在华北地区气象干旱监测中的适用性分析
Applicability analysis of four drought indices for meteorological drought monitoring in Northern China
  
DOI:10.7606/j.issn.1000-7601.2019.01.36
中文关键词:  干旱指标  干旱监测  SPEI指数  适用性分析  华北地区
英文关键词:drought indexes  drought monitoning  SPEI index  applicability analysis  Northern China
基金项目:青海省气象科学技术研究2018年重点项目(青气预函\[2018\]第1号)
作者单位
容锦盟 Meteorological Service Center of Qinghai, Xining, Qinghai 810001, China 
周丹 Meteorological Service Center of Qinghai, Xining, Qinghai 810001, China 
罗静 Qinghai Engineering Consulting Center, Xining, Qinghai 810001, China 
朱海玲 Qinghai Engineering Consulting Center, Xining, Qinghai 810001, China 
郭广 Meteorological Service Center of Qinghai, Xining, Qinghai 810001, China 
摘要点击次数: 193
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中文摘要:
      采用华北地区1961—2016年69个气象站点常规观测资料,通过选取特殊气象代表站点,选用CI、SPEI、SPI及Z指数分别计算了1、3、12个月时间尺度气象干旱,并与气象干旱发生实况进行对比分析。结果表明:(1)CI计算的华北地区不同区域各时间尺度气象干旱发生频率均较实际明显偏高7%~14%,Z指数计算的发生频率均较实际明显偏低6%~12%,SPI计算的部分区域季时间尺度气象干旱发生频率也明显偏低6%左右;(2)根据华北地区9个代表气象站点计算出的4种干旱指标对比干旱发生实况统计数据,结果显示在4个研究分区中,SPEI指数表征的干旱发生状况与实际吻合率最高,分别为57.41%、60.78%、57.06%和66.99%,与实际干旱发生状况吻合程度最低的是Z指数,4个研究分区的吻合率分别为40.85%、34.94%、41.56%和38.24%。研究表明,SPEI表征各种时间尺度气象干旱发生效果最好,Z指数效果最差。因此,选用SPEI能较准确地表征华北地区气象干旱年际变化及突变检测、时间分布、空间分布、干旱发生强度、不同等级干旱分布等特征。
英文摘要:
      We used meteorological data from representative stations selected from 69 meteorological stations in Northern China to study meteorological drought in a timeframe of 1, 3, and 12 months using CI、SPEI、SPI and Z indexes. The consistency of the existing drought and calculated indexes were also compared. The results showed that: (1) The drought frequency calculated using the CI was 7%~14% higher than the actual events while the Z in certain areas for different seasons were 6%~12% lower and SPI for seasonal scale was 6% lower; (2) The best correlation between the four drought indices and actual statistics was SPEI, which expressed 57.41%, 60.78%, 57.06%, and 66.99% of all 4 indexes. The least correlations were with Z, which described 40.85%, 34.94%, 41.56%, and 38.24% of the 4 indexes in the four regions. Therefore, SPEI was most suitable for drought monitoring, mutation detection, drought intensity, levels of spatial and temporal distribution in Northern China.
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