| 李亮,Pich Linvolak,蔡焕杰.基于标准化降水蒸散指数的甘肃省干旱时空特征分析[J].干旱地区农业研究,2019,37(3):256~266 |
| 基于标准化降水蒸散指数的甘肃省干旱时空特征分析 |
| Analysis of spatio-temporal distribution of drought characteristics based on SPEI in Gansu Province |
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| DOI：10.7606/j.issn.1000-7601.2019.03.34 |
| 中文关键词: 干旱；标准化降水蒸散指数（SPEI）；时空特性 经验正交函数；旋转经验正交函数 甘肃省 |
| 英文关键词:drought SPEI temporal and spatial characteristics EOF REOF Gansu Province |
| 基金项目:国家重点研发计划“西北典型农区高效节水灌溉技术与集成应用”（2016YFC0400201） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 为明确气候变化条件下甘肃省不同时间尺度的干旱特征，选用1951-2015年甘肃省33个气象站点逐日气象数据，计算了不同时间尺度的标准化降水蒸散指数SPEI，同时结合Mann-Kendall突变检验、复小波分析、经验正交函数分解、旋转经验正交函数分解等方法，对甘肃省65 a来干旱时空格局特征进行了分析。结果表明：在年际变化趋势方面，甘肃省干旱情势为由干变湿再变干，近年干旱趋势逐渐加重；四季均呈现由干变湿然后变干的趋势，近年春季变干趋势显著；干旱强度在全省范围内主要为轻旱和中旱等级，并表现为局域性轻旱和全域性中旱。在周期性变化方面，甘肃省的干旱时间周期性强弱依次为39、13、7、22 a尺度，但不同时间尺度表现出了不同的干湿震荡规律。在空间格局方面，甘肃省整体上呈西北部干旱缓解、东南部干旱加剧的趋势；春季干旱加剧最明显，冬季次之，夏季和秋季干湿状况基本相似。按照干旱区域敏感性强弱可将甘肃省分为东南地区东部（Ⅰ区）、西北地区（Ⅱ区）、中部地区（Ⅲ区）和东南地区西部（Ⅳ区），其中Ⅲ区呈干旱缓解趋势，其他地区基本呈干旱加剧的趋势。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| To better understand the spatio-temporal distribution of drought characteristics under climate change in different time scales in Gansu Province, daily data from 33 meteorological stations for the period of 1951-2015 were used in this study. The standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) was established combining with Mann-Kendall mutation test, complex wavelet analysis, empirical orthogonal function (EOF) and rotated empirical orthogonal function (REOF) method to analyse the spatial and temporal patterns of drought in the past 65 a in Gasnu Province. The results showed that in terms of the inter-annual SPEI changes, it showed a trend to become humid and then dry, and in recent years the drought trend has gradually increased. On the other hand, it was getting wet from dry firstly and then being dry in all of seasons, especially spring (P<0.05) from the seasonal perspective. The drought coverage and the intensity of drought appeared as the features of the local slight drought and domain moderate drought mainly at the annual scale in Gansu. In the time cycle, the time periods in Gansu were 39, 13, 7 a and 22 a in turn decrease on periodicity, but it appeared different oscillation of dry and wet in different time scales. Spatially, the northwestern regions had a humid trend, but it was drier in the southeastern part of Gansu on the contrary. Most regions were getting dry in spring (P<0.05) and winter, and it was similar of dry and wet zones in summer as well as autumn in terms of spatial distribution. According to the strength of arid sensitivity in Gansu, it can be divided into 4 sub-regions: Eastern district of southeastern region (I sub-region), northwestern region (Ⅱ sub-region), central region (Ⅲ sub-region) and western district of southeastern region (Ⅳ sub-region). Drought in Ⅲ sub-region was gradually alleviated, and others showed a trend of being drier. |
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