| 张玲玲,冯浩,董勤各.黄土高原冬小麦产量潜力时空分布特征及其影响因素[J].干旱地区农业研究,2019,37(3):267~274 |
| 黄土高原冬小麦产量潜力时空分布特征及其影响因素 |
| Spatial-temporal distribution characteristics of winter wheat potential yields and its influencing factors in the Loess Plateau |
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| DOI：10.7606/j.issn.1000-7601.2019.03.35 |
| 中文关键词: 冬小麦；APSIM-Wheat模型；潜在产量；雨养产量 黄土高原 |
| 英文关键词:winter wheat APSIM-Wheat model potential yield water-limited yield Loess Plateau |
| 基金项目:国家高技术研究发展计划（863计划）项目（2013AA102904）；国家自然科学基金项目（51879224）；国家自然科学基金项目（51609237） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 研究潜在产量的时空分布特征及其影响因素，有助于定量估计区域内作物产量的可提升空间，揭示限制产量提高的因素，明确未来提高作物产量的重点区域和可行措施。利用中国科学院长武黄土高原农业生态试验站2004-2008年的冬小麦数据资料，验证了APSIM-Wheat模型在黄土高原的适用性。结合黄土高原1974-2016年逐日气候资料和农业气象站的作物观测资料，分析该区冬小麦潜在产量和雨养产量的时空变化特征，明确冬小麦不同等级产量潜力的影响因子及影响程度。研究结果表明：42 a来在品种、管理措施不变条件下，黄土高原冬小麦潜在产量和雨养产量的平均值分别是6 554.19 kg· hm-2和3 584 kg· hm-2，变化速率分别为每10 a下降146.59 kg· hm-2和65.11 kg ·hm-2。气候变化背景下，对黄土高原冬小麦潜在产量影响最大的为生长季内的最高温度和太阳辐射，分别呈负相关关系（P<0.05）和正相关关系（P<0.05），相关系数分别为0.36和0.35；而水分是决定雨养产量的关键因素，呈显著的正向效应（P<0.05），相关系数为0.47。充分灌溉条件下，甘肃东南部和山西中部属于冬小麦低产且不稳产区。雨养条件下，山西中部和东北部为冬小麦低产且不稳产区。因此，建议通过栽培技术变革或者选择新品种来提升低产不稳产地区的冬小麦产量。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| A study on the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of potential yield and its influencing factors could help to quantitatively estimate the potential of crop yield in the region, reveal the factors that limit crop yield, and then identify key areas and possible measures to increase crop yields in the future. The Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM)-Wheat model was validated using the winter wheat data from Changwu Agro-ecological Experiment Station of the Chinese Academy of Sciences on Loess Plateau from 2004 to 2008, it performed well in simulating leaf area index, yield, and above-ground biomass of winter wheat. Hence, this model has good applicability in Loess Plateau. Combining meteorological data and agro-meteorological observations during 1974-2016 in winter wheat planting areas of Loess Plateau. The spatial-temporal distribution characteristics were analyzed in potential and water-limited yield of winter wheat, and then explored the impacts of climatic factors on potential and water-limited yield. The results showed that under the unchanged condition of variety and management measures from 1974 to 2016, the average potential yield and water-limited yield of winter wheat on the Loess Plateau were 6554.19 kg·hm-2 and 3584 kg·hm-2. In the past 42 years, the potential yield and water limited yield decreased by 146.59 kg·hm-2 and 65.11 kg·hm-2 ·（10a)-1, respectively. The increase in temperature caused the potential yield of winter wheat to decrease (P<0.05), and the increase in radiation increased the potential yield (P<0.05). The correlation coefficients were 0.36 and 0.35, respectively. Due to the absence of additional irrigation water supply during the winter wheat growing season, precipitation has the greatest impact on the water limited yield on the Loess Plateau, showing a significant positive effect (P<0.05) with a correlation coefficient of 0.47. Under the condition of sufficient irrigation, southeastern Gansu and central Shanxi were areas with low and unstable yields. Under the rain-feed condition, central and northeastern Shanxi were areas with low and unstable production. Therefore, we proposed to improve winter wheat yield in low and unstable yield areas through cultivation technology changes or selection of new varieties. |
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