| 董文俊,刘健峰,丁奠元,陈紫薇,李悦,王乃江,冯浩.旱作覆膜玉米生长和水分利用对气候变化的响应[J].干旱地区农业研究,2020,38(1):1~12 |
| 旱作覆膜玉米生长和水分利用对气候变化的响应 |
| Response of maize growth and water utilization under plastic mulching in dryland to climate change |
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| DOI：10.7606/j.issn.1000-7601.2020.01.01 |
| 中文关键词: AquaCrop模型 全球变暖 冬小麦-夏玉米覆膜轮作 产量 蒸发蒸腾 |
| 英文关键词:AquaCrop model global warming winter wheat\|summer maize mulching rotation crop yield evapotranspiration |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目（51709233）；国家“863”计划项目（2013AA102904） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 基于3 a连续冬小麦-夏玉米覆膜轮作试验校准和验证AquaCrop模型的适用性，模拟研究了气候变化对夏玉米生长、产量和水分利用的影响，分析了覆膜措施对气候变化的应对效果。结果表明：关中地区（以武功、宝鸡和西安地区为例）年平均温度呈逐年递增趋势，温度增加幅度由高到低依次为宝鸡、西安和武功，增温速率分别为0.20、0.12 ℃·10a-1和0.09 ℃·10a-1；降雨量呈逐年递减趋势，减少幅度大小依次为西安、宝鸡和武功，减小量分别为3.59、3.23 mm·10a-1和2.64 mm·10a-1。AquaCrop模型在关中地区表现出了良好的适用性，可以较好地模拟连续覆膜条件下作物的产量指标、水分利用和生长的动态变化，冠层覆盖度模拟值和实测值之间的均方根误差（RMSE）介于1.1%~15.3%，生物量模拟值和实测值之间的RMSE介于0.626~2.540 t·hm-2，土壤贮水量模拟值和实测值之间的RMSE介于12.6~47.4 mm。模拟研究表明，上世纪60年代以来，随着气温不断升高，武功、宝鸡和西安地区的夏玉米生育期均呈逐年缩短趋势，特别是1980s以来，减少幅度达2.76、4.82 d·10a-1和5.94 d·10a-1；在不同的降水年型下，覆膜处理产量均高于裸地处理，且其变异系数较小；在干旱气候条件下，覆膜处理依然可以获得一定的籽粒产量，与裸地处理相比，覆膜处理表现出了较好的稳产效应。同时，覆膜处理有效减少了玉米苗期土壤表层蒸发（平均减少7.6 mm），从而在土壤中保蓄更多的降雨；覆膜处理虽然增加了土壤耗水量，但其通过保蓄土壤水分，稳定作物产量，有效提高了玉米的水分利用效率。因此，关中地区旱作覆膜可以有效适应当地气候变化，在一定程度上应对干旱气候，具有较好的增产稳产效应。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| The applicability of AquaCrop model was calibrated and verified based on the experiment of winter wheat\|summer maize rotation under mulching from October 2013 to June 2016. The effects of climate change on the growth, yield, and water utilization of summer maize were simulated, and the effects of mulching on impact of climate change were analyzed. The results showed that the average annual temperature in Guanzhong (Wugong, Baoji, and Xi’an) increased while the rainfall decreased during the growing seasons. The temperature distributed from high in Baoji to low in Wugong and intermediate in Xi’an, and the rate of temperature increase was 0.20, 0.12℃·10a-1, and 0.09℃·10a-1. The decreases of rainfall in Xi’an, Baoji, and Wugong were 3.59, 3.23 mm, and 2.64 mm 10a-1. The AquaCrop model had good applicability in Guanzhong and simulated the yield, water utilization, and dynamics of crop growth of wheat and maize under mulching. The root mean square error (RMSE) between simulated and measured canopy coverage values ranged from 1.1% to 15.3%, the RMSE of biomass values ranged from 0.626 t·hm-2 to 2.540 t·hm-2, and the RMSE of soil water storage values ranged from 12.6 mm to 47.4 mm.The simulation results showed that temperature was rising since the 1960’s.The growth of summer maize during the growing seasons in Wugong, Baoji, and Xi’an showed a decreasing trend with the reduction as high as 2.76,4.82 d·10a-1, and 5.94 d·10a-1, especially, since the 1980’s. The yield with mulching was higher than that with control, and its coefficient of variation was small under different precipitation year types. Also, the mulching helped obtaining the grain yield and it promoted yield compared with the control under drought climate. Additionally, the mulching effectively reduced the evaporation of soil surface layer during maize seedling stage and conserved more rainfall in soil, which is needed for maize growth in later stage (an average reduction of 7.6 mm). Although mulching increased soil water consumption, it effectively improved water use efficiency of maize by conserving soil water and stabilizing crop yield. The mulching on summer maize in Guanzhong can adapt to climate change effectively and deal with drought climate to a certain extent, it has a good effect of increasing production and stabilizing production. |
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