| 张青雯,崔宁博,赵禄山,徐洋,李谦,刘飞鹏.基于相对湿润指数的云南省季节性干旱变化特征[J].干旱地区农业研究,2020,38(4):278~284 |
| 基于相对湿润指数的云南省季节性干旱变化特征 |
| Seasonal drought characteristics based on relative moisture index in Yunnan Province |
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| DOI：10.7606/j.issn.1000-7601.2020.04.35 |
| 中文关键词: 季节性干旱 相对湿润指数 时空变化 云南省 |
| 英文关键词:seasonal drought relative moisture index spatial and temporal distribution Yunnan Province |
| 基金项目:“十三五”国家重点研发计划（2016YFC0400206-03）；国家自然科学基金委优秀青年科学基金项目（51922072）；国家自然科学基金资助项目（51779161，51009101）；中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金（2018CDPZH-10，2016CDDY-S04-SCU，2017CDLZ-N22） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 利用云南省31个气象站1961—2016年逐日气象资料，计算各站点相对湿润指数（MI），采用Mann-Kendall检验、GIS反距离加权插值和偏相关系数法分析了云南省气象干旱时空变化特征及成因。结果表明：（1）云南省年平均MI为-0.08，平均干旱站次比为30.39%，年干旱呈上升趋势；冬季MI最小（-0.73），干旱站次比最高（52.58%）；夏季MI最大（0.69），干旱站次比最低（6.12%）。春旱呈减弱趋势，夏旱、秋旱、冬旱呈增强趋势。（2）年尺度上，除会泽、沾益等少数地区外，均处于无旱等级；全省春季以中旱、轻旱为主；夏季、秋季无干旱发生；冬季以重旱为主。年干旱频率呈自西南向东北递增趋势，平均频率为54.9%，春旱频率在80%以上，夏旱频率小于20%，秋旱也呈西南低东北高的趋势，平均频率为35.6%，冬旱平均频率达92.6%。（3）相关性分析显示，降水量、相对湿度与MI呈极显著正相关（P<0.01），日照时数与MI呈极显著负相关（P<0.01），均是云南省MI的主要驱动因子，温度对MI的影响较小。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| In this study, daily climatic data from 31 meteorological stations in last 56 years (1961-2016) were used to calculate the relative moisture index (MI). Mann-Kendall test, GIS inverse distance weighted interpolation, and correlation coefficient method were used to analyze the distribution characteristics of meteorological drought in Yunnan. The results showed that: (1) The average annual MI in Yunnan Province was at -0.08, the average drought station ratio was 30.39%, and the intensity of annual drought increased. In winter, the MI value was the smallest at -0.73, and the ratio of drought stations was the highest at 52.58%. In summer, the MI was the largest at 0.69, and the ratio of drought stations was at the lowest (6.12%）. The intensity of spring drought showed a decreasing trend, while drought in summer, autumn, and winter showed an increasing trend. (2) On annual scale, they were all in the drought\|free level except for a few regions such as Huize and Zhanyi stations.In the spring, there were mainly moderate and light droughts, there was no drought in summer and autumn, and severe droughts were mainly in winter.In annual scale, the drought frequency increased from the Southwest to Northeast, with an average frequency of 54.9%.The frequency of spring drought in most regions was above 80%, and summer drought frequency was less than 20%. The autumn drought also showed a trend of lower in the Southwest and higher in the Northeast, with an average frequency of 35.6%, and an average winter drought frequency was at 92.6%. (3) Correlation analysis showed that the change of MI in Yunnan was significantly positively correlated with the precipitation and relative humidity (P<0.01). Sunlight hours had a very significant negative correlation with MI (P<0.01). The precipitation, relative humidity and sunlight hours were the main factors affecting MI change in Yunnan, while temperature had a smaller effect.This study can provide theoretical guidance for mitigating the seasonal drought impact and agricultural disaster reduction in Yunnan Province. |
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