| 李姣,王丽荣,张琪,孙玉龙,张安凝知.河北省冰雹时空分布特征及对林果的影响评估[J].干旱地区农业研究,2020,38(5):198~204 |
| 河北省冰雹时空分布特征及对林果的影响评估 |
| Temporal and spatial characteristics of hail and its impact evaluation on fruit farming in Hebei Province |
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| DOI：10.7606/j.issn.1000-7601.2020.05.28 |
| 中文关键词: 冰雹 时空特征 林果 损失评估模型 灾害等级 河北省 |
| 英文关键词:hail spatial and temporal distribution fruit farming losses assessment model classification of disaster intensity Hebei Province |
| 基金项目:河北省重点研发计划项目（19275408D）；国家自然科学基金（41375038）；河北省气象局科研开发项目 (19ky25) |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 根据河北省1951―2018年历史冰雹灾情数据和逐日气象要素数据，分析了冰雹日数时空演变特征；基于单位面积林果雹灾损失，构建了极大风速、冰雹直径、降雹时间等为致灾因子的林果损失评估模型，采用最优分割法划分了轻度、中度、较重、重度、严重5个等级，确定了不同灾害等级的致灾临界阈值；基于模型，对2019年林果受雹灾影响进行了评估。结果表明：河北省冰雹日数以0.26 d·10a-1的速度下降；冰雹出现时间一般在3—11月，5—7月是冰雹高发期,占全年次数的65.1%，6月频率最高，达30%；冰雹主要出现在午后到傍晚（13∶00—18∶00），16∶00达到峰值。河北省冰雹日数空间分布随地形变化，山区多于平原。林果受雹灾单位面积损失与冰雹最大直径和持续时间呈极显著的正相关。2019年河北省冰雹灾害对林果影响较小，灾情较轻。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Based on the historical data of hail disasters and meteorology from 1951 to 2018, the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of hail days in Hebei Province were analyzed. Relevant meteorological elements (extreme wind speed, hail size, and hailing duration) were identified to build a hail disaster risk assessment model for fruit farming in Hebei Province. Five disaster intensity levels were divided by optimal segmentation method, and the critical thresholds for each level were established accordingly. Based on the model, the impact of hail disasters on fruit farming in 2019 was evaluated. The result showed that the hail days decreased at a rate of 0.26 d·10a-1; Hail disaster usually occurred during March to November, and most frequently between May to July, the number of occurrences during this time was 65.1% of the total number of the whole year, especially in June, the occurrences rate was as high as 30%, the hail mainly occurred from afternoon to sunset,peaked at 16∶00. The hail days changed significantly with the topography, which showed more hail disasters occurred in mountainous areas than on plains. The most relevant disaster\|causing factors were hail size and hailing duration. In 2019, the hail disaster in Hebei Province had a small impact on fruit farming, and the losses were relatively small. |
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